Does it depend on the strength of your cohort if the moderated sac score is scaled up or down? So in a weak cohort, chances are your sac scores would scale down as the weak cohort may not perform well while in a strong cohort they would scale up as the cohort would do better?
Essentially, the way it works is they look at the SAC score of whoever is ranking first, and they compare it to their exam score. Then they look at whoever is in the bottom of the top quarter of your class, and what exam score they got. Then they do the same for the middle person, the person in the bottom quarter, and the lowest score, and they say, "these people should get SAC scores similar to their exam scores". Then, everyone else is just shifted around them.
So, if you're rank 1, it doesn't matter what anyone else got, unless their exam is better than yours. If you're at the bottom, then it also doesn't matter what anyone else got - unless their exam is worse than yours. Otherwise, it depends on where you fall between each of these people. If you're in the top quarter, then it depends on if the top quarter of your cohort is strong or not. If you're between the top quarter and the middle, it depends on how that section of the cohort goes, etc.
So, whether your score will scale up or down depends on:
a) whether you score higher or lower in your exam than in your SACs (if you're any of those important ranks I mentioned earlier)
b) if your important ranks score higher or lower in their exam than their SACs
Note that there is a level of deviation that's allowed to take place, so it's not as simple as "you got a 69 in your SACs but a 70 in your exam, so now your SACs are a 70", but that's gist of things.
Tl;dr - the system is more complicated than just simply, strong cohorts scale up and weak cohorts scale down. On some level, sure, that's likely the effect you'll see - but it's not that simple, and depends more on if the SACs you've gotten are representative of typical VCAA exams or not and if your cohort gets similar marks on the exam as their SACs or not