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Author Topic: Study Score Prediction Question Thread  (Read 395986 times)  Share 

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brenden

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Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« on: October 16, 2012, 09:34:45 pm »
+39
Note: I made this thread in 2012 (my graduating year), because I was obsessed with predicting the maximum 'possibility' of what I could score, and determining how feasible my aims were. I can really, really understand the desire to start predicting scores to see what you need on each subject to get x ATAR, however, I strongly recommend not getting caught up in it, because it is utter bullshit. It is a waste of your time. It is a waste of your stress. Work your hardest (and don't just say you're working your hardest) and you'll be surprised at the results. For all I researched statistics and moderation and whatever else, I still managed to predict myself a good eight points lower than I actually received in one subject, and predict myself a good eight points higher than I actually received in another. For anyone curious, the way I do things for a subject with a normal distribution of GAs, I take whatever SAC score and then standardise it against the mean and SD for that particular GA. I repeat for all three GAs and take into account differences in weighting (Spesh Exam 2 is weighted more, for example), and then get an average of the z-scores and apply that to the study score. (So if GA 1, 2, and 3 have an average score of +2 Sx away from the mean, I'd approximate a 44, all things being equal). And then I sprinkle a little bit of corrective intuition and any other knowledge I might have from random threads. So, do that by yourself if you know how to and save yourself a thread ;)

PLEASE DO NOT POST ASKING FOR A PREDICTION THAT IS EXACTLY THE SAME AS ONE IN THE FRONT PAGE/b]...
I'm going to edit/compile every 'predict my study score' comment in this thread into this here original post. By the time we get a couple of pages of "please predict SS" then we're bound to get some overlap and thus a reduction in people needing clarification.
I will be categorising predictions by subjects, and then highest to lowest GAs/Scores and the ranks that accompanied.
Others, please feel free to predict as you usually would, this thread is just a compilation so we don't get five posts on "What if I get three B+s in Biology" per week. 

YOU MUST PROVIDE US WITH: Your ranking and the approximated strength of your cohort, or approximate strength of the area around your rank. (So, if you're ranked third, even if you have a horrible cohort, but the top ten people are mega-geniuses - let us know).http://www.bettereducation.com.au/results/vce.aspx.. and your hopeful exam(s) mark(s). Conversely, don't worry about your school or ranking and provide is with your SAC GAs after scaling (as has been done in the first reply below.)
If you don't know what a GA is, read Paul's thread before posting.
If you want to understand where people's predictions are (hopefully) coming from, read Paul's Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
and check
http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Pages/vce/statistics/2011/statssect3.aspx, http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Pages/vce/statistics/2010/statssect3.aspx,
http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/Pages/vce/statistics/2009/statssect3.aspx etc etc.

GA 1: GA 2: GA 3: (template)

Accounting
GA 1: 171/180 , (151/180 A+ cutoff)   GA 2:199/200 scaled    GA 3: 180/180  --> 50
GA 1: A  GA 2: Low A+  GA 3: Low A+  --> 38-40
Australian Politics
A marginal A+ on sacs (by 2 marks) and an A on the exam. What would I be expecting. I rank 1st. Cohort is relatively weak with an average score of B.
GA 1: Low A  GA 2: Low A  GA 3: Low A      -->36ish
GA 1: High A  GA 2: High A  GA 3: High A    -->39ish
Biology
GA 1: 67.5/75 GA 2: Unknown  GA 3: 74/75 --> 47
Business Management
GA 1: B+ GA 2: A    GA 3: B+  --> 37
GA 1: B+ GA 2: B+  GA 3: B+  --> 36 [tops]
GA 1: B+ GA 2: A    GA 3: B    --> 35
GA 1: B   GA 2: B    GA 3: B    --> 31  [absolute min]
Chemistry
GA 1: High A+  GA 2: Mid A+  GA 3: High A+  --> 48
GA 1: High A+  GA 2: Mid A+  GA 3: Mid A+    --> 46
GA 1: High A+  GA 2: Mid A+  GA 3: Low A+   --> 44
GA 1: High A+  GA 2: Mid A+  GA 3: Low A     --> 40+
GA 1: High B+  GA 2: A+        GA 3: High A+  --> 38
GA 1: High A+  GA 2: Mid A+  GA 3: Low B(?) --> 35+
Chinese SLA
GA 1: Low A+  GA 2: Low A+  GA 3: Low A+  --> 35 [could be wrong]
English
GA 1: High A+  GA 2: High A+  GA 3: 50/60        --> 43-45
GA 1: M-H A+  GA 2: High A+  GA 3: H-L A         --> 41
GA 1: A+         GA 2: A+         GA 3: A+  (all low)--> 38-42
GA 1: M-H A+  GA 2: High A+  GA 3: High B+      --> 38
GA 1: ?            GA 2: ?           GA 3: A+             --> 36-40
GA 1: High A   GA 2: High A    GA 3: Low A         --> 36-38
GA 1: 77/100  GA 2: 65/100   GA 3: B+             --> 34
GA 1: 77/100  GA 2: 65/100   GA 3: B               --> 33
Further Mathematics
GA 1: 100/100     GA 2:  40/40    GA 3: 59/60     --> 50
Exam 1: 36/40  Exam 2: 54/60                           --> Close to 40.
GA1: C+               GA2: B            GA3: C             ->  29

50-70% on both exams --> 29-35
Geography
GA 1: B+  GA 2: M-H A  GA 3: Low A+  --> 36
Global Politics
Rank 1-3
Exam Scenario A - A+
GA 1: Low A    GA 2: Low A    GA 3: Low A     --> 36
GA 1: Low A+  GA 2: Low A+  GA 3: Low A+  --> 38
GA 1: M-H A+  GA 2: M-H A+  GA 3: M-H A+  --> 42-50.
Health and Human Development
GA 1: High A+  GA 2: High A+  GA 3: 95/100  --> 47-50
GA 1: 100/100 GA 2: 100/100 GA 3: 169/200 (A+ - cut off was 149) ---47
IT: Applications
GA1: B+ GA2: A+ GA3: A+ (77.5/90) -> 41
Legal Studies
GA 1: 93/100  GA 2: 93/100  GA 3: 60/70  --> 39
Literature
GA 1: 100/100  GA 2: 96/100  GA 3: 36/40        --> 45 or above [imo]
GA1:   A+          GA2: A+         GA3: A+ (70/80) -> 43
GA 1: C+          GA 2: C+        GA 3: High B+     --> 27-31
Methods
GA 1: A           GA 2: A+       GA 3: A+       --> 40
GA 1: Low A+  GA 2: Low A  GA 3: Low A   --> 37
Philosophy
GA 1: 100/100  GA 2: 100/100  GA 3: 55/60  --> 48+ [could be 50[?]]
Physics
GA 1: L-M A+  GA 2: High A  GA 3: M-H A+ (close to full marks)  --> 42 ~(43?)
GA 1: B+        GA 2: B+       GA 3: A                                        --> 35-36
GA1: C            GA2: B          GA3: C                                          -> 25
Psychology
GA 1: 152/180 (A+ - cut off was 146)  GA 2: 199/200        GA 3: 175/180 (A+ - cut off was 159) --> 48
GA 1: 75/90                                         GA 2: 192/200        GA 3: 174/180                                   --> 45
GA 1: A+ 73.5/90  cut-off(73/90)         GA 2: A+ 193/200  GA 3: A+ 171/180 cut-off(79.5/90)       --> 44
GA1: A+ (78.5/90)                               GA2: A+                GA3: A (77.5/90)                                 -> 42
GA 1: 152/180                                     GA 2: 190/200        GA 3: 162/180                                   --> 42
GA 1: A                                                GA 2: A+                 GA 3: A+[?]                                    --> 37-42
GA 1: D+                                              GA 2: B                   GA 3: B                                          --> 28-30
Revolutions
GA 1: High A+  GA 2: High A+  GA 3: High A+       --> 45-50
GA 1: A+         GA 2: A+          GA 3: A (53.5/80    -> 38
GA 1: B            GA 2: B+         GA 3: A                --> 35-37
Specialist Math
GA 1: A          GA 2: A           GA 3: A         --> 37[?] quite variable.
GA 1: Mid B+  GA 2: Low B+  GA 3: High B  --> 34
« Last Edit: January 24, 2018, 04:50:09 pm by Quantum44 »
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Somye

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2012, 10:08:01 pm »
0
For bazza:
'mid A+ sacs after scaling
69/75 exam 1
What do i generally need for exam 2 to get a 35 and a 40 for chem?'
2011: Accounting, Latin
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ktrah

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2012, 10:42:18 pm »
0
Hey, for English, what do you reckon you would get with high As on SACs (~83/100) and a low A for the exam (~7s)? Thanks!

StumbleBum

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2012, 10:47:55 pm »
0
Hey, for English, what do you reckon you would get with high As on SACs (~83/100) and a low A for the exam (~7s)? Thanks!
I'd say ~36-38 going off last years grade distrubutions, as the lower exam result will impact your SACs.
2011: Mathematical Methods (CAS) [36]

2012: English [35+] | Specialist Mathematics [35+] | Further Mathematics [45+] | Physics [40+] | Accounting [38+] |

paulsterio

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2012, 10:49:39 pm »
+3
Read this first guys: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!

I'm writing up a guide so you all can predict your own study score without having to rely so much on ATARNotes.

Shenz0r

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2012, 10:58:37 pm »
0
For bazza:
'mid A+ sacs after scaling
69/75 exam 1
What do i generally need for exam 2 to get a 35 and a 40 for chem?'

Pretty sure it'll be above 40 for sure...
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brenden

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2012, 11:30:42 pm »
0
Hey, for English, what do you reckon you would get with high As on SACs (~83/100) and a low A for the exam (~7s)? Thanks!
What's your ranking?
Edit: And strength of cohort?
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CaiTheHuman

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2012, 11:32:58 pm »
0
Predict my Sturdy Score.

For Australian Politics :):

A marginal A+ on sacs (by 2 marks) and an A on the exam. What would I be expecting. I rank 1st. Cohort is relatively weak with an average score of B.
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ttrai

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2012, 04:30:30 pm »
0
Please predict my English SS

Not sure about the cohort but am guessing weak to medium with rank in top 10 or maybe top 5
If i got
GA 1:mid-high A+       GA 2: high A+       GA3:  predicting a high b+ to low A on the exam (40/60)

would that be enough to get over 38? If not, what SS would i be more likely to get?
« Last Edit: October 17, 2012, 04:33:29 pm by ttrai »

Pup

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2012, 04:57:14 pm »
0
How about global politics

Ranked 1-3

Unit 3 92/100
Unit 4 90-92/100

Exam Scenario

A or A+
2011: Methods [40]  Chemistry [34]
2012: Global Politics [44] Specialist Maths [33] Physics [35] English [38] 
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ktrah

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2012, 05:02:53 pm »
-1
Hey, for English, what do you reckon you would get with high As on SACs (~83/100) and a low A for the exam (~7s)? Thanks!
What's your ranking?
Edit: And strength of cohort?

Not sure on ranking, probably above average but not at the top. The cohort is pretty good (strong public school) but definitely not up there with MHS and the like.

Russ

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2012, 05:10:16 pm »
0
IF YOU POST ASKING FOR A PREDICTION THAT IS EXACTLY THE SAME AS ONE IN THIS ORIGINAL MESSAGE... whilst I can't ban you -> you will look like a gigantic fucking idiot and everyone will remember you as the person who ignored the OP.
Okay I'm going to edit/compile every 'predict my study score' comment in this thread into this here original post. By the time we get a couple of pages of "please predict SS" then we're bound to get some overlap and thus a reduction in people needing clarification.

This is a big effort from brendan, so if you do ignore the OP then I will temporarily probate you. The least you can do is try to help yourself before asking us :)
Thanks for doing this brendan, stickied


brenden

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2012, 05:45:48 pm »
0
IF YOU POST ASKING FOR A PREDICTION THAT IS EXACTLY THE SAME AS ONE IN THIS ORIGINAL MESSAGE... whilst I can't ban you -> you will look like a gigantic fucking idiot and everyone will remember you as the person who ignored the OP.
Okay I'm going to edit/compile every 'predict my study score' comment in this thread into this here original post. By the time we get a couple of pages of "please predict SS" then we're bound to get some overlap and thus a reduction in people needing clarification.

This is a big effort from brendan, so if you do ignore the OP then I will temporarily probate you. The least you can do is try to help yourself before asking us :)
Thanks for doing this brendan, stickied
Thanks Gorgeous.
Updated all scenarios.
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Eric Cartman

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2012, 05:47:41 pm »
0
For English: SACs (194/200 at a top tier school), exam 50/60?  :P

brenden

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Re: Study Score Prediction Compilation (please refer to the first page)
« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2012, 05:59:10 pm »
+1
For English: SACs (194/200 at a top tier school), exam 50/60?  :P
43-45.
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