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September 24, 2020, 11:12:43 am

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 5690 times)  Share 

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K888

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #75 on: August 03, 2020, 06:16:10 pm »
+8
https://twitter.com/p_pappa/status/1290128400103792642?s=19

We have a leak. This is looking big
Yep, this isn't fully accurate. Eg: butchers and such are remaining open.

Definitely recommend people refer to the DHHS website to find out what is and isn't included in stage 4 shut down per insanipi's post :)
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #76 on: August 04, 2020, 11:45:23 am »
+6
We aren't allowed to exercise anymore  :'(

If isolating.

keltingmeith

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #77 on: August 04, 2020, 12:24:54 pm »
+3
Yep, this isn't fully accurate. Eg: butchers and such are remaining open.

Definitely recommend people refer to the DHHS website to find out what is and isn't included in stage 4 shut down per insanipi's post :)

Yeah, I fell asleep before I could amend the post. Doing now
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #78 on: August 04, 2020, 01:02:14 pm »
+1
We aren't allowed to exercise anymore  :'(
WHAT?!?! Is that saying we literally can't go outside our block???
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Joseph41

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #79 on: August 04, 2020, 01:02:48 pm »
+6
WHAT?!?! Is that saying we literally can't go outside our block???

If isolating.

keltingmeith

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #80 on: August 04, 2020, 01:21:33 pm »
+11
Just to make this crystal clear: unless you are isolating, you are still allowed to leave the house for up to an hour each day to exercise. To my knowledge, this hour DOES NOT include the restrictions to shopping (and how only one person per household can go shopping on any day) that have been outlined. So, even if your housemate/brother/dog went out shopping for 2 hours today, YOU can still personally go outside and walk around for an hour. You do have to do this within 5km of your home, however you can go for this walk with up to 1 other person (as long as they're also within 5 km of their home)
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Dear VCE 3/4 Chemistry students: you do not need to know how to do pH calculations for your exam. That is all.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #81 on: August 04, 2020, 02:16:11 pm »
0
Ok, thank you... I got scared there for a moment, that's all. Nice clear explanation. It just threw me.
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keltingmeith

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #82 on: August 04, 2020, 02:55:13 pm »
+2
Ok, thank you... I got scared there for a moment, that's all. Nice clear explanation. It just threw me.

Yeah - this is why it's super important to NOT spread misinformation (let me just go kick myself again for not editing my post earlier - we all make mistakes and are not being reproach, oops). Not even out of "protecting the government" or "stopping alerting the sheeple" or whatever other thing is being said about what the "government isn't telling us" - it's to avoid scaring people, just like you were scared a moment ago. (Also, this isn't me calling anyone out or saying anything directly at you - it's just a general observation)
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Dear VCE 3/4 Chemistry students: you do not need to know how to do pH calculations for your exam. That is all.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #83 on: August 05, 2020, 11:58:10 am »
+8
I think a few people may have heard that Victoria's stage 3 lockdowns prevented somewhere between 9000 and 37000 cases.

Here is the journal article: https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/victorias-response-resurgence-covid-19-has-averted-9000-37000-cases-july-2020

For reference the basic reproduction number (R0) is how many new cases are likely generated via one case in a population. i.e. how many people does someone with COVID-19 give it to during their infection. Before the lockdowns it was 1.75 (on average 1 person spreads it to 1.75 people) and after the number was 1.16. So from this it seems like the lockdowns were effective but just not enough. If we are able to get the R0 value below 1 we would be able to see a drop in new cases each day.

From the article:
Quote
Assuming a 4-day generation interval as reported (4), these growth rates correspond to effective pre- and post-intervention reproduction ratios (Reff) of 1.75 and 1.16.

Quote
The model projected 27,000 cases (95% CI: 17,000 to 45,000) would occur from July 1 to 30 if the growth rate had continued unchanged (Reff 1.75), as opposed to the 8,314 cases diagnosed in Victoria during this period.

Quote
Our results show that the control measures introduced by the Victorian Government in early July were highly effective in reducing the resurgence in COVID-19 transmission, leading to a reduction in Reff from an estimated 1.75 to 1.16. Despite this reduction, Victoria is still experiencing a slow but significant ongoing post-intervention growth in cases. To achieve a genuine “flattening of the curve” (Reff<1), a further 14% reduction in transmission is needed.

Quote
In conclusion, the control measures introduced in Victoria from 1 July reduced the transmission of COVID-19, averting 9,000–37,000 infections between 2 and 30 July. Importantly, however, there remains small but significant ongoing growth with further work needed to bring the Victorian epidemic under control. A broader and sustainable effort, involving community and government together is needed to optimise the uptake of all of the non-pharmaceutical interventions available to us.

keltingmeith

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #84 on: August 08, 2020, 07:30:42 am »
+8
Anyone else struggling to watch the toll this seems to be taking on Dan Andrews? Like damn, I almost feel like he's lost years off of his life the way the press are hounding him over things he can't answer (something something damn Murdoch press something), I just want to give him a big hug :'(
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #85 on: August 08, 2020, 11:35:24 am »
+7
I feel sorry for all the leaders in these positions. I mean, can't we leave 'em alone? To do their jobs? How can you do a job properly if there's this kind of thing, this hounding? Forget politics for now - this is people's lives!
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keltingmeith

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #86 on: August 08, 2020, 11:43:27 am »
+1
I'd agree with you if the media weren't playing sympathetic with ScoMo just a few weeks ago 😏
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #87 on: August 08, 2020, 12:20:49 pm »
+11
Anyone else struggling to watch the toll this seems to be taking on Dan Andrews? Like damn, I almost feel like he's lost years off of his life the way the press are hounding him over things he can't answer (something something damn Murdoch press something), I just want to give him a big hug :'(
Definitely. The guy hasn't had a single day off in literally months. Imagine waking up every morning knowing that you have to stand in front of your people and give them news they criticise you for when hindsight is always 20/20. I wouldn't be able to do it, and I applaud his stamina and strength. The decisions he's made as a leader show that he cares for the lives of the people he leads.

466 new cases in Victoria today, with 12 deaths overnight including a man in his 30s. That's a frightening number to be faced with every day for the next 2 weeks, but hopefully it drops significantly after that and stage 4 (Metro) and stage 3 (Victoria) can be lifted within the prospective time-frame.
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Sine

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #88 on: August 08, 2020, 03:52:13 pm »
+6
466 new cases in Victoria today, with 12 deaths overnight including a man in his 30s. That's a frightening number to be faced with every day for the next 2 weeks, but hopefully it drops significantly after that and stage 4 (Metro) and stage 3 (Victoria) can be lifted within the prospective time-frame.
I think the restrictions will be enough to cause a drop in cases/deaths over time.

A big challenge will be when we get our new cases/death numbers down and people start crying to have everything opened up. I would still want to be very cautious and slowly open up what we can given an outbreak can occur at any time. Also, if we open up before it is completely eliminated we should be prepared for the possibility of a "3rd wave".


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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #89 on: August 08, 2020, 06:10:08 pm »
0
I think the restrictions will be enough to cause a drop in cases/deaths over time.

A big challenge will be when we get our new cases/death numbers down and people start crying to have everything opened up. I would still want to be very cautious and slowly open up what we can given an outbreak can occur at any time. Also, if we open up before it is completely eliminated we should be prepared for the possibility of a "3rd wave".
The restrictions will only be enough if everyone abides by them... we need to eliminate, not just get back down to 20s or something, or there will be a third wave.
Also, we just don't know enough about this disease to make truly informed decisions!
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2019: HHD 3/4 (31->?)
2020: Methods 3/4 (36?->?) | Revolutions (France/Russia) 3/4 (32?->?) | English 3/4 (43?->?) | Texts and Traditions 3/4 (42?->?)
Aiming 92+ ATAR - SS's in italics are my aims... some more unrealistic than others (I'm looking at you, Texts, English!)
Aims for uni/life
-Bachelor of Nursing/Bachelor of Midwifery at Deakin (straight Nursing instead if I don't get in)
-Write/publish books (thanks NaNoWriMo.org!)
For Narnia!
Have counted to 73