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October 01, 2020, 02:29:00 pm

Author Topic: COVID-19 and Education  (Read 33700 times)  Share 

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turinturambar

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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #195 on: July 08, 2020, 01:40:44 pm »
+4
Otherwise, I think I'm a fan of the incoming restrictions? Idk, kinda hard to be a "fan", more like they just seem reasonable enough, I guess. There's not really much else they can do about it - I do hope people don't complain as much to Daniel Andrews about "how we should be allowed out" now that they know what happens if he does let people out prematurely and they don't follow social distancing 😏

I don't think people sufficiently factor in the influence of luck in how things go when numbers are small.  Yes, mistakes were made here (in hotel quarantine most obviously), and the blame game has started on Victorian compliance generally, but I don't believe that Victoria are somehow 100 times worse at following the guidelines than everyone else, or that we eased restrictions prematurely when other states didn't (my memory is that in mid-May I thought we were in a better position than NSW, and they were easing restrictions faster than us).

The simple reality is that if the numbers are low, most people can break the guidelines most of the time and get away with it because they don't happen to come into contact with someone who has it.  And for me in the Eastern suburbs it is probably still that way - there is a fair chance that I could break all the rules and still not come into contact with anyone having the disease, and thus not catch it (no, I'm not recommending breaking rules - just saying that a "personal responsibility" narrative doesn't take into account differences between individuals and states that have more to do with luck than culpability.  Just because we want someone to blame doesn't mean the blame is actually fair).

So long as we keep the current "suppression rather than elimination" policy (which we kind of have to do) I'd be amazed if places like Sydney and Brisbane don't have spikes at some point in the next year when one or more things go wrong and a few cases slip under the radar for too long.  And how big those spikes become depends on how well state authorities do test and trace after detecting it and how well people in the state are following guidelines - but it will also depend a lot on luck.

Yeah, the response was alright, but when they lifted restrictions last term, I was actually nervous that they were easing restrictions so fast, it's almost like the government wants a second wave (which they now got) At the same time I also understand the burden of the economic stagnation. But look, now the outcome is worst than what it would've been if they kept the restrictions, now the second wave has hit. A trend that I hope is only an anomaly.

As above, my memory is that we eased restrictions slower than other states, and the easing of restrictions was data driven and proportionate to the number of cases we then had.  Just like this lockdown is data driven.

also, as much as i'm looking forward to going outside normally, i'm more looking forward to a time when the palpable state of constant stress and tension subsides and it will feel normal to accidentally brush past someone on public transport or at the shops and not freak out  :(

Yes, and this has always been the problem with the argument "If you just re-open the economy, things will be back to normal".  I suspect after a second lockdown we may be even more eager to get back to normal, but at the same time take longer to convince ourselves things are actually OK.  Which is why the National Cabinet was trying to avoid re-opening and then closing again, though the level of community transmission makes this a more serious problem than we've seen so far and needs action.

I'm mostly satisfied with this response. I'm aware of the difference in danger/risk of COVID-19 among children compared to adults but I still find it weird that we can't gather in groups of three outside school but then spend hours each day in one room with over 20 people.  :)
To be honest, I'm just happy that we aren't being sent home again, online SACs would have been an absolute nightmare.

The "children are safe, so don't close schools" (though young adults may be among the biggest spreaders) has always been an interesting argument, because there's such an age range in school-goers.  I was interested that yesterday Brett Sutton acknowledged that attendees in upper high school had more "adult-like" transmission patterns at the same time as agreeing for Year 11 and 12 to return to school.  Part of it was that they can get to school themselves and don't have parents mingling at drop-off etc., and part of it is of course that even if Year 12s are higher risk there are also considered to be more benefits from in-person learning for Year 12s.
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keltingmeith

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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #196 on: July 08, 2020, 04:21:02 pm »
+6
I don't think people sufficiently factor in the influence of luck in how things go when numbers are small.  Yes, mistakes were made here (in hotel quarantine most obviously), and the blame game has started on Victorian compliance generally, but I don't believe that Victoria are somehow 100 times worse at following the guidelines than everyone else, or that we eased restrictions prematurely when other states didn't (my memory is that in mid-May I thought we were in a better position than NSW, and they were easing restrictions faster than us).

The simple reality is that if the numbers are low, most people can break the guidelines most of the time and get away with it because they don't happen to come into contact with someone who has it.  And for me in the Eastern suburbs it is probably still that way - there is a fair chance that I could break all the rules and still not come into contact with anyone having the disease, and thus not catch it (no, I'm not recommending breaking rules - just saying that a "personal responsibility" narrative doesn't take into account differences between individuals and states that have more to do with luck than culpability.  Just because we want someone to blame doesn't mean the blame is actually fair).

So long as we keep the current "suppression rather than elimination" policy (which we kind of have to do) I'd be amazed if places like Sydney and Brisbane don't have spikes at some point in the next year when one or more things go wrong and a few cases slip under the radar for too long.  And how big those spikes become depends on how well state authorities do test and trace after detecting it and how well people in the state are following guidelines - but it will also depend a lot on luck.

As above, my memory is that we eased restrictions slower than other states, and the easing of restrictions was data driven and proportionate to the number of cases we then had.  Just like this lockdown is data driven.

Yes, and this has always been the problem with the argument "If you just re-open the economy, things will be back to normal".  I suspect after a second lockdown we may be even more eager to get back to normal, but at the same time take longer to convince ourselves things are actually OK.  Which is why the National Cabinet was trying to avoid re-opening and then closing again, though the level of community transmission makes this a more serious problem than we've seen so far and needs action.

The "children are safe, so don't close schools" (though young adults may be among the biggest spreaders) has always been an interesting argument, because there's such an age range in school-goers.  I was interested that yesterday Brett Sutton acknowledged that attendees in upper high school had more "adult-like" transmission patterns at the same time as agreeing for Year 11 and 12 to return to school.  Part of it was that they can get to school themselves and don't have parents mingling at drop-off etc., and part of it is of course that even if Year 12s are higher risk there are also considered to be more benefits from in-person learning for Year 12s.

Sorry - I didn't intend to imply that we DID stop restrictions early. If anything, Victoria has been one of the forerunners in stopping quickly and coming back slowly - Daniel Andrews was putting in restrictions back when Scott Morrison was saying there was nothing to worry about (was kinda funny when one day Andrews would say "we're going to have to ask people to work from home when able", and then the next Morrison was saying to continue business as normal). And as you say, when NSW were easing off, we were still going strong. You're right that it's partly luck based, but there IS something to be said that this likely happened because someone, somewhere, broke compliance - WHY they did it or WHO they are is neither here nor there. What's important is that we do something about it, which is happening.

As to my point on what happens if we let people out prematurely - if this happened DESPITE following proper protocol, imagine how much worse off we'd have been if we had come out of restrictions early. I just feel bad for Andrews - he's trying his best in a shit situation, things go wrong because of reasons entirely outside of his control, and everyone's complaining. And even before the spike, there were so many people complaining and telling him off. I just want less hate on my boy :'(
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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #197 on: July 10, 2020, 09:06:19 pm »
+7
Is anyone else scared to go back to school? I'm not sure if I'm for going back to school again anymore... I really don't want to pass the virus onto any members of my family who are more at-risk than me if I do end up being an asymptomatic carrier. Is this just going to be an endless cycle of ramping up restrictions then relaxing them over and over until a suitable vaccine is developed? I'm seeing people who don't take social distancing seriously at all, and it really worries me. Is looking at the US and UK not enough of an incentive for the public to do their part in containing the spread of the virus?

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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #198 on: July 10, 2020, 09:54:17 pm »
+5
Is anyone else scared to go back to school? I'm not sure if I'm for going back to school again anymore... I really don't want to pass the virus onto any members of my family who are more at-risk than me if I do end up being an asymptomatic carrier. Is this just going to be an endless cycle of ramping up restrictions then relaxing them over and over until a suitable vaccine is developed? I'm seeing people who don't take social distancing seriously at all, and it really worries me. Is looking at the US and UK not enough of an incentive for the public to do their part in containing the spread of the virus?

Yes. Getting more terrified by the day actually - the cases are increasing like crazy.....

Not so much worried about myself getting it, but as you said, I'm horribly worried for my family members. Especially since I'll be the only one going out, I really dont want to bring anything home that could be avoided!

As much as I'd like to go back to school, I'm getting worried. I'm willingly to sacrifice a few learning weeks at school and work hard at home myself, if that means helping stop the spread of the virus and avoiding bringing anything home.

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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #199 on: July 12, 2020, 11:43:18 am »
+5
Most Victorian students will return to remote learning in term three, with those in years prep to 10.

It has been officially announced that we are returning back to remote learning (those in year prep - 10)

What do you think about this?

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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #200 on: July 12, 2020, 12:52:13 pm »
+1
Most Victorian students will return to remote learning in term three, with those in years prep to 10.

It has been officially announced that we are returning back to remote learning (those in year prep - 10)

What do you think about this?

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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #201 on: July 12, 2020, 01:03:50 pm »
+2
Most Victorian students will return to remote learning in term three, with those in years prep to 10.

It has been officially announced that we are returning back to remote learning (those in year prep - 10)

What do you think about this?
kind of inevitable tbh given the vast majority of the students from prep-10 would need a parent taking them to and from school. Also the inherent increased difficulty of instilling social distancing with those that are younger.

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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #202 on: July 12, 2020, 01:36:54 pm »
+3
Most Victorian students will return to remote learning in term three, with those in years prep to 10.

It has been officially announced that we are returning back to remote learning (those in year prep - 10)

What do you think about this?
Inevitable, but doesn't stop my parents going nooooooooooooo because I'm not around much to help out this time (as it currently stands) 😂😅
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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #203 on: July 12, 2020, 09:46:54 pm »
+3
Not sure if this is unique to my friends' experience but a worrying number of teachers are choosing to stay at home. While of course they are entitled to work from home should they feel they are at risk, how will VCAA account for the fact that some students essentially did not have a present teacher for the majority of the year? I really feel bad for them because they essentially have "online school" but at school and have to learn many things independently. Not to mention the fact that they falling so behind in terms of content... this year is such a mess can I just hibernate to 2021
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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #204 on: July 12, 2020, 09:51:32 pm »
+5
this year is such a mess can I just hibernate to 2021
Even if you do 'hibernate' to 2021, I doubt it will be any better... it's impossible to completely ease restrictions until there is a suitable cure or vaccine, unfortunately. And by the looks of it, a vaccine is not going to available in the near future - we can only hope that there's a successful one at the end of this year. If not, the start of 2021 is not looking to be any less bleak.

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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #205 on: July 13, 2020, 09:05:07 pm »
+3
Even if you do 'hibernate' to 2021, I doubt it will be any better... it's impossible to completely ease restrictions until there is a suitable cure or vaccine, unfortunately. And by the looks of it, a vaccine is not going to available in the near future - we can only hope that there's a successful one at the end of this year. If not, the start of 2021 is not looking to be any less bleak.

Even if there are one or more effective vaccine candidates by the end of the year, scaling it up to the world population will be a non-trivial job that takes time.  Even if countries like Australia and the US grab control of a lot of the supply (which I'm hearing is what happened with the swine flu vaccine 10 years ago - and did not make us popular), just getting it manufactured and administered to everyone needing it (most of the population if you want some kind of herd immunity...) will take time.
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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #206 on: July 13, 2020, 09:14:08 pm »
+3
Even if there are one or more effective vaccine candidates by the end of the year, scaling it up to the world population will be a non-trivial job that takes time.  Even if countries like Australia and the US grab control of a lot of the supply (which I'm hearing is what happened with the swine flu vaccine 10 years ago - and did not make us popular), just getting it manufactured and administered to everyone needing it (most of the population if you want some kind of herd immunity...) will take time.
This is true. But don't they already have stuff that they've been testing, at any rate?
this year is such a mess can I just hibernate to 2021
I know other people have already said this but - this thing ain't going away soon. Everyone seems to talk about it like everything'll be fine by the end of the year, exams and so forth, and yet that's not how it looks.
Why can't we just do hard lockdown - as in, no one sees anyone else for two weeks, no contact at all, and then test everyone? Then the people who come in positive can be kept home (by force if needed) and everyone else can go about their merry way. Or three weeks to be safe.
Year 12 this year is interesting, no doubt about it. A mix of good and bad for us kids. I do like not having all the other students around at the moment though... but that's probably my introversion speaking. And probably not good anyway.
All my subjects are right now up to date with where we should be without COVID - in other words, with it, for my class, this is better. Hmm... ???
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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #207 on: July 13, 2020, 09:31:35 pm »
+3
This is true. But don't they already have stuff that they've been testing, at any rate?
Yes - everyone has been in a mad scramble to be the first to commercialise a successful vaccine, because not only will it prevent everyone from being affected by COVID, but also it'll make them quite rich, haha. However, producing and trialling vaccines is a long process - every time the developing vaccine is found to be unsuitable, they have to scrap it and start over. Like turinturambar stated, distribution also isn't easy, and poses the question of who gets vaccinated first and if those in poverty will even have access to the vaccine.

Why can't we just do hard lockdown - as in, no one sees anyone else for two weeks, no contact at all, and then test everyone? Then the people who come in positive can be kept home (by force if needed) and everyone else can go about their merry way. Or three weeks to be safe.
I think this is because hard lockdown for any period of time will significantly worsen the already damaged economy, and the government cares about the economy a lot. I also don't think many people would be keen to do this, because there's the whole thing of if the virus is contained early and infections drop, people will criticise it as too much, and if restrictions are imposed too late and too lax, then people will criticise it as too little. I think this was also discussed on the other thread about Victoria's lockdown measures. There's also a shortage of testing kits, iirc?

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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #208 on: July 13, 2020, 09:56:11 pm »
+1
Interestingly, my house mate just told me that Victoria is tossing up the idea of complete elimination.
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Re: COVID-19 and Education
« Reply #209 on: July 13, 2020, 10:20:34 pm »
+3
I feel like this is moving a little bit away from education but nonetheless

Retrospectively it looks like we should've gone with the elimination strategy from the start. Given Australia has no borders with other countries and at the beginning only had minimal community transmission it becomes an ideal country to go for the elimination strategy. However, looking back I don't think a lot of the general public would've accepted this and would've said it is an overreaction. Even with the initial lockdown it was quite possible to be done once we got to low levels in Victoria but everyone was complaining about the need to open up quickly.

The health first response would be elimination. I am seeing a lot of epidemiologists and health officials say that if we go for that strategy we should go for it within the next month.

The economy vs health argument is interesting. We have already seen some countries that have prioritised the economy but they are still getting destroyed regardless. Australia has done ok to somewhat artificially prop up the economy via stimulus payments but once this is all over the real impact of the pandemic is likely to be seen.