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Author Topic: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!  (Read 74748 times)  Share 

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paulsterio

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Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« on: July 09, 2012, 12:50:30 am »
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So recently, the amount of threads that are around asking about how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated have been numerous, so I hope this will be a be all and end all guide to those questions. This thread assumes that you have a good understanding of statistics and probability which is covered in Mathematical Methods - even if you don't, it will still make a lot of sense, as long as you skip over the mathematical parts.

Study Score

Your study score is a normally (Gaussian) distributed number which represents your performance in comparison to everybody else who did your subject that year. It is a probability density function with a mean of 30 and a standard deviation of 7. Essentially, the cut off for the Study Score is 50, which means that even if you are the best student in the state by a massive margin, you will still be awarded a 50.

A study score of 30 means that you are the median student in the state, approximately 50% of students are worse than you and 50% of students are better than you. Other commonly asked about numbers are 35 (top 22% of the state), 40 (top 9% of the state) and 45 (top 2% of the state) - note that these are only for studies which have a high number of enrollments, studies with fewer students may not be perfectly normally distributed.

Scaling

Scaling refers to a constant amount added or subtracted to the mean study score (30) - this means that its effects will always be greatest around 30 and it will be diluted as you move up or down, away from 30. Essentially scaling is introduced in order to reflect the amount of competition in the different studies. Certain studies, such as Specialist Maths (for example) have a much higher level of competition than a study such as Further Maths - because the Specialist Maths students are better at their subject than the Further Maths students usually are. This is why a student that is in the top 2% of Specialist Maths students is deemed to be better than a student in the top 2% of Further Maths students.

This is why Specialist Maths is then scaled up, whereas Further Maths is then scaled down.

How are Study Scores calculated

Study Scores are calculated by looking at the distribution of each of your three Graded Assessments (GAs). Every subject will have three GAs, each weighted differently depending on the subject. If the subject has one exam, the GAs will be such that - GA1 is Unit 3 SACs, GA2 is Unit 4 SACs and GA3 is the exam. Subjects with two exams will have one GA which represents combined SACs - which means that for these subjects, there are no Unit 3 SACs or Unit 4 SACs, they are all summed up as one mark.

So what happens is that you will get an arbitrary number for each GA which will represent your mark for the section. Usually for the exams, it will be your Exam mark, in SACs, it will be your scaled SAC mark. Now VCAA will plot your all the marks for a particular GA on a normal distribution and standardise it so that you get a Z-score - this is done by finding the mean and the standard deviations of the exam mark and using the formula to standardise (Z = (X-m)/o).

VCAA will then do the same thing with all of your three GAs, and will end up with three Z-scores. It will then do a weighted sum of the three scores and come up with the Z-score for your Study Score - which they will then "un-standardise" by introducing the mean of 30 and standard deviation of 7.

You might ask why they decided to use a mean of 30 and a standard deviation of 7. Well I think this is purely because 50 will then be (around) 3 standard deviations of the mean and 50 is a convenient number to use. (99.7% of values are within 3 SDs of the mean).

How are SAC GAs calculated

SAC GAs are often where most students get lost - and it is probably because most are not familiar with it.

First of all, what is important here is your overall SAC rank. This means that if you are ranked first, it doesn't matter if you are ranked first by a big margin or by a small margin. If you are ranked first, you are ranked first.

So now, say you are ranked nth. What VCAA will do is they will give you the nth exam mark in your cohort as your SAC mark.

So if there are three students, Thushan, Dan and Paul in a cohort and they each get an average SAC mark of 100, 70, 60 respectively, this means that Thushan will be ranked 1, Dan will be ranked 2 and Paul will be ranked 3. Say they all sit the exam, and on the exam day, Dan's beard has grown so much that he can't see his exam paper anymore, thus, their exam marks are 100, 20, 70.

This means that for the SAC GA - Thushan will get 100, Dan will get 70 and Paul will get 20.


Shadows came across this video created by 'jpbreheny13878' on YouTube, which might be worth watching if you're still confused. Particularly on the point of what role do raw sac marks have to play in the statistical moderation process, do also take a read of the discussion later in this thread, especially the posts Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated! onwards as they provide a bit more detail in addition to this post and the video.

That video was posted by shadows in this thread SAC SCALING EXPLANATION


But isn't this unfair

Yes, in some way or another this is unfair, especially if you have a small cohort, however, they need a way of standardising SACs so that students who go to good schools aren't disadvantaged. For example at MHS, it is apparently very difficult to get 100% on Specialist Maths SACs, but if I go to some not-so-well-off school, it might be a breeze. So if it was all raw marks, I would just go to that not-so-well-off school - not to mention schools would then purposely set easy SACs so that their students would dominate.

It becomes a complicated system if we just consider the raw marks.

How is the ATAR calculated

The ATAR is calculated by taking your English (or EL/Lit/ESL) score and adding it to your top three scaled scores, then adding 10% of the highest two of your remaining scores and this becomes the aggregate. The aggregate is then plotted as a cumulative probability density function and you are given the number that corresponds to your aggregate.

This means that if you have gotten an ATAR of 98.50, your aggregate is better than 98.50% of the state.

Questions? Post below!
« Last Edit: June 20, 2013, 01:45:09 pm by Lazyred »

jmosh002

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2012, 12:52:42 am »
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Thanks Paul this is great !  :)

Jenny_2108

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2012, 01:02:05 am »
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So if there are three students, Thushan, Dan and Paul in a cohort and they each get an average SAC mark of 100, 70, 60 respectively, this means that Thushan will be ranked 1, Dan will be ranked 2 and Paul will be ranked 3. Say they all sit the exam, and on the exam day, Dan's beard has grown so much that he can't see his exam paper anymore, thus, their exam marks are 100, 20, 70.

This means that for the SAC GA - Thushan will get 100, Dan will get 70 and Paul will get 20.


I dont understand this part. If Dan gets 20 in the exam, its suppose that his study score will be down right? Why is it still 70? Btw, Paul's exam score is 70 which is not very different from the SAC mark, why does he get 20?

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2012, 01:13:27 am »
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How is it possible to get 200/200 scaled for the SAC GA even if no one in your cohort got 100% for the exam?  ???
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Lasercookie

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2012, 01:14:35 am »
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I dont understand this part. If Dan gets 20 in the exam, its suppose that his study score will be down right? Why is it still 70? Btw, Paul's exam score is 70 which is not very different from the SAC mark, why does he get 20?
His study score will probably take a large hit, study scores are composed of 3 graded assessments (with various weightings as Paul explained), the 70 was just for the graded assessment relating to SACS, not the exam.

Phy124

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2012, 01:23:52 am »
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I dont understand this part. If Dan gets 20 in the exam, its suppose that his study score will be down right? Why is it still 70? Btw, Paul's exam score is 70 which is not very different from the SAC mark, why does he get 20?
What he's saying is that; as Paul is ranked third he will get the 3rd highest exam score as his scaled SAC score, which happened to be the 20 scored by Dan.

Thushan was ranked first so he will get the top exam mark as his SAC score which was 100 (scored by himself).

Finally, Dan will get the second highest exam mark as his scaled SAC score, which was 70 (scored by Paul).

So you end up with

Student     Exam    SAC (scaled)
Thushan     100          100
Paul            70             20
Dan             20             70

Assuming it was just two equally weighted GA's Paul and Dan would end up with the same study score, quite a low one at that due to Dan's poor exam performance not only impacting himself, but Paul as well due to SAC ranking and consequent scaling.


Well I think this was what he was getting at anyway.


Also, it would not surprise me if the scaling system for SACs was more complicated than this, but this is as close as we'll get to a description of how it works.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2012, 01:25:42 am by The AN Dunce »
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paulsterio

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2012, 01:55:10 am »
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How is it possible to get 200/200 scaled for the SAC GA even if no one in your cohort got 100% for the exam?  ???

It's rounding and other effects - it happenned with my school for spesh as well, I was ranked one and got 100 for SACs, but the highest exam mark was a little below 100%, but when rounded off slightly, it was enough to give me the 33.3333% for SACs.

spectroscopy

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2012, 10:38:04 am »
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It's rounding and other effects - it happenned with my school for spesh as well, I was ranked one and got 100 for SACs, but the highest exam mark was a little below 100%, but when rounded off slightly, it was enough to give me the 33.3333% for SACs.

who rounds it off? LOL
and what happens if there are two people ranked first with 100% on every sac, and on the exam one gets higher then the other(both are the top scores), who gets the higher score?

Fishyiscool

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2012, 11:45:39 am »
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 now im gonna spend the rest of my vce poring over this D:
Thanks for the explanation though :)
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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2012, 11:59:17 am »
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It's rounding and other effects - it happenned with my school for spesh as well, I was ranked one and got 100 for SACs, but the highest exam mark was a little below 100%, but when rounded off slightly, it was enough to give me the 33.3333% for SACs.

who rounds it off? LOL
and what happens if there are two people ranked first with 100% on every sac, and on the exam one gets higher then the other(both are the top scores), who gets the higher score?

The one who got a higher exam score obviously

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #10 on: July 09, 2012, 12:10:10 pm »
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just realised how dumb that sounded fml

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #11 on: July 09, 2012, 12:13:48 pm »
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Very nice explanation, Paul, thank you very much.

Just to clarify something. With the SAC scaling, does that mean that if you're in an average cohort, but with a strong upper quarter or so, and you sit in that section that you're not really disadvantaged by having a slightly lower rank? I'm in this current situation where I'm sitting in an average strength cohort of 97 for Further, but the top 20 students are really strong. So if I was to sit anywhere between ranks 1 and 20 and all of us in that section aced the exams, then we would all do really well, right? I'm thankful that I'm currently holding rank 1 but I guess I would like to know that it's not the end of the world if I drop a couple of marks on the next two SACs. :)

Also, I think I can tell you why the mean sits at 30, rather than 25. Basically, there's a lot of students that enrol in subjects at the start of the year and then do absolutely nothing, meaning there is a very large cluster of outliers that sit at a study score of 0. I think VCAA moves the standard distribution in such a way that even if you do really badly in all of your assessments, you will most likely receive a study score of 10 for actually completing the study. Hence, the mean is slightly bumped up.
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paulsterio

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #12 on: July 09, 2012, 12:34:56 pm »
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Very nice explanation, Paul, thank you very much.

Just to clarify something. With the SAC scaling, does that mean that if you're in an average cohort, but with a strong upper quarter or so, and you sit in that section that you're not really disadvantaged by having a slightly lower rank? I'm in this current situation where I'm sitting in an average strength cohort of 97 for Further, but the top 20 students are really strong. So if I was to sit anywhere between ranks 1 and 20 and all of us in that section aced the exams, then we would all do really well, right? I'm thankful that I'm currently holding rank 1 but I guess I would like to know that it's not the end of the world if I drop a couple of marks on the next two SACs. :)

Also, I think I can tell you why the mean sits at 30, rather than 25. Basically, there's a lot of students that enrol in subjects at the start of the year and then do absolutely nothing, meaning there is a very large cluster of outliers that sit at a study score of 0. I think VCAA moves the standard distribution in such a way that even if you do really badly in all of your assessments, you will most likely receive a study score of 10 for actually completing the study. Hence, the mean is slightly bumped up.

You're welcome, but OK - you're absolutely right, you should not worry at all. The truth is, if you're ranked, say, 5th, you'd have to rely on the fact that there are 5 students (and you may be one of those five or you may not be) who will perform really well on the exam, because you will get the 5th highest exam mark as your own SAC GA mark. Whatever happens below you, doesn't really matter. For example, if you're ranked 5th in a cohort of 5 students, then you will get the 5th ranked exam mark as your SAC mark - like I have just explained. However, let's say you add in another 50 students below those 5, it still won't matter, you will still get the same SAC GA mark give that - 1) those 50 students don't rank within the top 5 and 2) those 50 students don't score higher than the other 5 on the exam.

You might be right, but essentially nobody gets a Study Score of 0, even if you don't do the exam. To be honest though, I don't know of anyone with a study score of below 25 up the top of my head - so I won't be able to tell you. Setting the mean at 25 wouldn't work though, because 3 SDs from the Mean will be 46, unless they adjust the SD to 8-ish, but hmm, it probably doesn't matter.

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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2012, 12:41:43 am »
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Question: what about sac marks for subjects with two exams? Does your rank from the average of both exams get taken into account? :s
And also, essentially your exam mark will always be your exam mark? Stuff up the exam and you're screwed? All the work you put in for sacs benefits someone else in the cohort? :s
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Re: Guide to how Study Scores and ATARs are calculated!
« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2012, 01:00:18 am »
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This means that if you have gotten an ATAR of 98.50, your aggregate is better than 98.50% of the state.

Does that mean if you get an ATAR of 65, your aggregate is better than 65% of the state? If so, how come 65 is around the average? I've never quite understood why it's not 50 ???