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March 28, 2024, 10:28:25 pm

Author Topic: Victorian Election  (Read 11016 times)  Share 

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Bri MT

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #45 on: November 24, 2018, 11:23:57 am »
0
does anyone know if you have to vote in your own electorate or can you go to a different one and do it?

I think you go in a different queue if you're voting in a different electorate?

vox nihili

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #46 on: November 24, 2018, 11:31:55 am »
+2
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PhoenixxFire

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #47 on: November 24, 2018, 07:22:37 pm »
+2
Antony Green has already predicted a labor majority government lol
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Aaron

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #48 on: November 24, 2018, 07:54:41 pm »
+7
Antony Green has already predicted a labor majority government lol

This is a great day.

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wog_boy22

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #49 on: November 24, 2018, 08:16:57 pm »
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Bloodbath
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PhoenixxFire

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #50 on: November 24, 2018, 08:48:38 pm »
+1
As much as I dislike the liberals, I’m watching the ABC’s election coverage and John Pesutto actually seems like a pretty decent guy.

I take that back if he’s actually a bad guy and is just good at faking for the cameras
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Aaron

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #51 on: November 24, 2018, 08:49:46 pm »
+3
Even some areas which have been traditionally Liberal for some time have fallen. Sending a clear message here.

ABC has Labor winning 57 seats at the moment based on the current figures. A good 12 or so above the required number. That's amazing.
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PhoenixxFire

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #52 on: November 24, 2018, 08:53:43 pm »
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Definitley think liberal screwed up with their policies, think they would have done better appealing to undecided center voters.
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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #53 on: November 24, 2018, 09:44:13 pm »
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ABC showing Labor likely to get to 60... 3x Libs at the moment

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Joseph41

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #54 on: November 24, 2018, 11:32:46 pm »
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Comprehensive, one might say!

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vox nihili

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #55 on: November 25, 2018, 12:02:37 am »
+6
Sorry about my absence here folks! Have been out tonight but have been watching the results closely.

Has definitely been an emphatic victory for Labor, surprisingly so. It's nice in a sense, as Daniel Andrews said, that Victorians were baited by the kind of ugly, divisive politics that we saw from the Liberal party. They took a really negative strategy to the election that, as above, probably didn't sit too well with the more moderate Matthew Guy. It's an interesting reminder that strongly progressive governments can actually be popular in western countries. As far as I'm aware, it hasn't been discussed a lot tonight, but the Liberals tried a populist approach at this election, whereas Labor were far less populist in their approach. A bit heartening given the events around the world.

Surprised by the lack of the swing against the Greens. I think it sort of proves that a lot of those Greens voters, once they've left, probably won't come back to the Labor party. Both federally and at the state level the Labor party has decisively shifted to the left and hasn't really picked up much support from the Greens. A shift of one percent is a fair chunk of the Greens support, but given their pathetic handling of the candidate for Footscray and the progressiveness of the current government, I'm surprised it was so little. Glad that Labor won back Northcote. Lidia Thorpe came to speak to us at our student conference and she was genuinely appalling. That's not, of course, to say that she's without talent; but her views were abhorrent. Don't mind so much about Ellen Sandell (Melbourne), who I've also heard speak and found quite convincing if I'm honest.

Interesting that the swings appeared to be largest in the inner east. Think seats like Caulfield, Hawthorn, Albert Park, Richmond and perhaps less so in the outer suburbs. Surprising given that the Labor campaign seemed to be geared so strongly to the outer suburbs (focusing on health, education and transport) and the Liberal campaign, really, should have hit harder in the inner suburbs, where crime rates are generally higher. It appears the reverse happened.



On a final note: Darryn Lyons was expected to give the seat of Geelong a good run. He didn't. There was a small swing against Labor towards Darryn Lyons in the seat; however, it was still an emphatic victory there. I cannot overstate how important this result is. Darryn Lyons has a lot of currency in Geelong and certainly has strong support. He's seen down here as an underdog who gets things done for the city. A more careful analysis of his record though reveals that he was a bully without the policy acumen to deal with the rigours of council let alone state parliament and who systematically abused his position to further his own brand, at the detriment of the city. Glad he got kicked to the curb.
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vox nihili

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #56 on: November 29, 2018, 09:00:07 pm »
+3
Just a little update.

Although the Andrews' government announced its new ministry today (with parity for men and women no less), the count continues with 4/5 votes counted. According to the ABC, 8 seats still hang in the balance. On current numbers, it looks like most of these will go to the Coalition; however, that's a very unreliable prediction indeed. In Brunswick the Greens are leading, whilst the election computer has the Greens comfortably ahead in Prahran, which is rubbish. The winner of Prahran will be whoever finishes second: Labor or the Greens. That the Greens are ahead so far on this is based on the previous election's two-party-preferred, which was Liberal v. Greens. The ABC has done a fairly poor job the last couple of elections (this and Wentworth) by rushing at the gate a little bit with their predictions. For example, they called Caulfield for Labor early in the piece, whilst failing to appreciate that the Orthodox Jewish community can't vote on the Sabbath and that all of their votes (sitting in prepoll and postals) hadn't been counted yet. Needless to say, Cauflield will well and truly remain with the Liberals.
Results here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/

Matthew Guy resigned this week amidst fall out in the Liberal party. I've discussed that at length in the AusPol thread. The leadership election is expected to happen next week and is expected to include Michael O'Brien (shadow treasurer and former treasurer under Napthine) and John Pesutto. The complication here being that John Pesutto is potentially going to lose his seat of Hawthorn. With 12% left to count, he's less than 100 votes behind the Labor candidate. Expect a recount. It may actually be too late for him to stand up for the leadership election by the time the count is done, especially if there's a recount.
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appleandbee

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #57 on: November 29, 2018, 09:26:02 pm »
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Just a little update.

whilst the election computer has the Greens comfortably ahead in Prahran, which is rubbish. The winner of Prahran will be whoever finishes second: Labor or the Greens. That the Greens are ahead so far on this is based on the previous election's two-party-preferred, which was Liberal v. Greens.

I was confused as well at the fact that Pharoah is currently 2nd in terms of primary votes but wasn't in the 2 party preferred (unless every voter that did not vote for a major party preferenced the Greens). That makes sense now that they relied on last election's two party preferred.
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vox nihili

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Re: Victorian Election
« Reply #58 on: November 29, 2018, 09:39:19 pm »
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I was confused as well at the fact that Pharoah is currently 2nd in terms of primary votes but wasn't in the 2 party preferred (unless every voter that did not vote for a major party preferenced the Greens). That makes sense now that they relied on last election's two party preferred.

The Greens might still finish in second place. It looks as though the ALP will probably get more primary votes, but there are other more minor candidates in that election whose preferences might flow to the Greens and see them in second place.
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