Disclaimer: love both sports, have been gearing myself up for this fight for two months.
I think the cross-code "McGregor couldn't do it" discussion goes a bit too far. So many people saying "Floyd has 49 fights and Connor has 0!"
No. Not true. Connor has 24 fights and 18 knockouts. He's fought under severe pressure a lot of times in his career. He's been through intense, gruelling fight camps that no-one but a professional fighter can comprehend. Yes, he hasn't had a boxing fight, but comparing him to an amateur boxer making their professional debut is silly. Someone making their professional debut has never been under the lights, has never heard the crowd. AT LEAST in this respect, it's not AS BIG of a mismatch as people make out just by pointing to the numbers. (Don't get me wrong, it's a severe mismatch, but not because Connor's never been in a fight in his life. He's never been in a boxing match, sure, but part of the intrigue in this matchup is that we're about to find out how much that truly matters).
I think predictions... they're folly. The whole point of this fight is that literally not one single person has any idea how things will work out.
On Connor's side:
- Floyd's hands are brittle af, hasn't had a genuine knockout in 10 years.
- Floyd is old - slower, less powerful than he used to be (so, basically, he's still ridiculously fast... lol), coming off a 2 year layoff, whereas Connor has seen a lot of activity in major camps in the past 2 years
- Connor's style will be totally unfamiliar to Floyd. Floyd doesn't study tape - he fights everyone the same way - which is actually fucking boss as. He's so good he doesn't need to study tape; he backs his style in regardless. But like, that's fine when your style is built for other boxing styles. There's a chance (if you're making an argument for Connor) that "Floyd won't know what's coming!" (I disagree with this. Floyd's the ultimate professional. He's not gonna get spooked by some weird footwork and a beard).
- Connor is bigger, younger, stronger, and will probably take a 5kg weight advantage into the fight.
On Floyd's side:
- an enormous wealth of experience. I know I made a point about "Connor has fought before" earlier in this post but... Floyd has supreme experience over 12 rounds - tactically, physically, familiarty
- Is probably psychologically/physically more prepared for a longer fight. Connor will be in absolutely phenomenal shape, I have no doubt - but realistically, he's only ever done 12 rounds of sparring. That's never, ever, ever going to feel the same as 12 rounds of a huge fight (i keep going to say 'championship fight' but this is literally a meaningless fight in the grand scheme of things haha).
- Is simply 50 million times a better boxer than Connor will ever be. (I guess one of the major question is... does that matter all that much?
I agree that Connor's best chance is an early knockout. Floyd could win in any number of unsurprising ways. I wouldn't be overly surprised if Connor knocked Floyd out, but I'd be pretty fucking flabbergasted if he won a decision... lol. Connor's chances of getting knocked out go up massively the later the fight goes imo... It will just be super interesting. Anything could happen (most likely a boring points fest but c'mon a boy can dream).
Would be ecstatic if Connor won. Expecting Mayweather to win, low-key hopeful af that something magical happens.