2020 US Presidential Election

[vox nihili]

AP just called Arizona for Biden. Others haven't but AP are usually reasonably conservative. A win there would be a huge boost for the probability of a Biden victory.

[Sine]

Biden tightening the gap in Michigan, slightly leading in Wisconsin now. Still only 20k votes difference in those two states though. However, many believe a lot of the rest of the vote will trend towards Biden.

Right now it seems like the simplest pathway for Biden is to win Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan. That would put him at 270 electoral votes on the dot. It may take a few days or even a week to finalise though since Nevada will still be receiving ballots over the week.

[blueycan]

Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin, with most sources putting Biden at 264 electoral votes and Trump at 214. The states still in play are Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. There are reports that more ballots coming into Georgia later today, and Nevada won't resume counting until 4am tomorrow AEDT.

Eeeeee

[Orb]

Sportsbet paid out all bets on Biden winning!!! ))

Although they also paid it out on ALP winning the last Australian election.. my breath is still held

[Sine]

Biden looks much better in Pennsylvania now. Still behind by ~190k but there are 750k mail-in ballots left to be counted which are likely favour him.

[tiredandstressed]

Nevada is so close OMG 
If Biden wins Nevada he can win the presidency (given none of the states he prospected to win flip)

[vox nihili]

I don't think that we should take Arizona as being called for Biden. Only AP and Fox have made that call and since then the count has become a lot closer, with the Arizona prepolls paradoxically (c.f. the rest of the US) favouring Trump.

That said, Biden wins in Wisconsin and Michigan make it very hard for Trump to win.

Where we're at with the remaining states:

Arizona: Biden has a healthy lead there but Trump is clawing back with prepolls. Biden lead should be healthy enough but still possible Trump picks it.
Nevada: small Biden lead but mainly prepolls to count. Expected to fall to Biden.
Georgia: Trump up by about 0.7% with only 5% of the vote to count. Most of the remaining votes are in Atlanta (ironically home to the Center for Disease Control), which is very, very Biden-friendly. This will be extremely close but probably just favours Biden
Pennsylvania: Trump's lead has been clawed back realllllly fast now that they're counting prepolls. This is exactly what was predicted to occur (early huge Trump leads that vanish). Given how they're tracking and how Trump did elsewhere, Biden is probably going to win this one.
North Carolina: Trump lead with about 5% left to count. Not entirely clear where the votes are but they're probably late prepolls, which have favoured Biden elsewhere but not by the margins of the early prepolls. Trump likely to retain this one

[Sine]

Biden further cut down the gap in Georgia, now only down by 18500 votes. Some of the recent count from Atlanta and the surrounding areas have been ~80% in his favour. I am not exactly sure how many votes are left (I have heard a range between 50k - 100k but not exactly sure).

EDIT (12:26 AM): Biden trailing by 164k in Pennsylvania. Likely at least 450k votes left which should trend towards Biden  (especially the 110k+ from Philadelphia   --> apparently so far the mail-ins from Philadelphia have been 90%+ for Biden). However, still a bit of uncertainty on the exact number of ballots left to count.

[Joseph41]

Georgia couldn't be much closer at the moment.

[Sine]

Georgia couldn't be much closer at the moment.

Less than 2k difference with 16k votes to be counted now. Quite likely to be a recount.

[tiredandstressed]

Does Trump actually have legal grounds to sue the swing states for fraud?

[vox nihili]

Does Trump actually have legal grounds to sue the swing states for fraud?

no

[Unknown-111]

So far it looks like Joe Biden, but who knows what Trump might pull.

[Sine]

Biden in the lead in Georgia now, less than 1k difference though so definitely not over. However, a very good position for him.

EDIT (1:05 AM): Biden has just taken the lead in Pennsylvania. Almost immediately Decision Desk HQ then called Pennsylvania for Biden. Therefore, elected as the 46th President (Projected by Decision Desk HQ).

[JerryMouse2019]

Isn't the AP the most accurate when it comes to calling states?

Don't know too much about the accuracy of Decision Desk HQ. So I wouldn't only trust them.

However, I do believe that Biden has won.