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March 29, 2024, 05:24:48 pm

Author Topic: Study Score Prediction Question Thread  (Read 979139 times)  Share 

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keltingmeith

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2955 on: September 11, 2020, 11:49:10 pm »
+2
HHD

u3 92/100
u4 predicted 68/75
exam predicted 85%
rank 1/70-something, large cohort

i put ga1 92%, ga2 90% and ga3 85% in the keltingmeith study score predictor and it says 35?
thanks in advance (:



Yeah, seems a bit small, huh? Good news for you - I had entered the GA3 total wrong, which was causing the calculator to give a wrong result for HHD. I've now fixed it, and the spreadsheet predicts a 43. Feel free to play around with it again now, if you want to try other combinations of scores

EDIT: potentially, looking at your scores again, I'd also predict your SACs might scale down a little. The scores are close enough to the exam that they might not, but I like to think worst case scenario, y'know? In which case, I'd predict scores of 87, 85, 85, which would give you a study score of 42.

EDIT 2: I've now just made a change in how the calculator predicts things, so instead it predicts a range instead of a single score. It's now pegging you at anywhere between 39 and 45.

blueycan

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2956 on: September 12, 2020, 03:32:52 pm »
0
//

yea I was wondering as it seemed a bit low, it makes more sense with the update. thanks so much for the help, i appreciate it (:

cataclysm666

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2957 on: September 14, 2020, 04:16:20 am »
0
i fucked up unit 3 completely for all of my subjects.
english was 76%.
physics 40%.
legal studies 60%
ancient history 50%
further maths 45%

my fuck ups were caused by some personal problems and i know i’m well capable of achieving 80%+ minimum for all those subjects. if I perform better in unit 4 with a 70-85% average and perform very well on all of the end of year exams (80%++) will i be able to achieve an 80-90 ATAR?

thank you, i’d really appreciate some help

keltingmeith

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2958 on: September 14, 2020, 04:39:38 am »
+3
i fucked up unit 3 completely for all of my subjects.
english was 76%.
physics 40%.
legal studies 60%
ancient history 50%
further maths 45%

my fuck ups were caused by some personal problems and i know i’m well capable of achieving 80%+ minimum for all those subjects. if I perform better in unit 4 with a 70-85% average and perform very well on all of the end of year exams (80%++) will i be able to achieve an 80-90 ATAR?

thank you, i’d really appreciate some help

I've run your numbers through my study score calculator, then run those study scores through the AN ATAR calculator. Based on my calculations, if you get 80% in EVERYTHING from after unit 3 results (note: for SACs, you can get less than 80% if your average becomes 80%), then as a BEST CASE SCENARIO, you will get above an 80 ATAR. HOWEVER, it also predicts a 77 in the lower range of ATARs that you can get.

So, will you get 80-90 if you can score 80% on everything? Nobody can guarantee it. But, it's not entirely off the table. You just need to make sure to keep working hard and score as high as you possibly can.

Unknown-111

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2959 on: September 14, 2020, 07:00:02 am »
+1
i fucked up unit 3 completely for all of my subjects.
english was 76%.
physics 40%.
legal studies 60%
ancient history 50%
further maths 45%

my fuck ups were caused by some personal problems and i know i’m well capable of achieving 80%+ minimum for all those subjects. if I perform better in unit 4 with a 70-85% average and perform very well on all of the end of year exams (80%++) will i be able to achieve an 80-90 ATAR?

thank you, i’d really appreciate some help
I am doing ancient history now, if you are scoring 50% on unit 3 for that subject I think you might be screwed (I am averaging 50's too don't worry). I am doing unit 3/4 history this year btw, but fear not ace the exam and you can get a much better score. Since most of your other subjects don't scale too well except physics, that might pull you down quite a bit, legal and further math in particular is quite competitive at the top end. I wish you all the best for remote learning and this year :)
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 07:03:50 am by Unknown-111 »

cataclysm666

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2960 on: September 14, 2020, 10:21:10 am »
0
I've run your numbers through my study score calculator, then run those study scores through the AN ATAR calculator. Based on my calculations, if you get 80% in EVERYTHING from after unit 3 results (note: for SACs, you can get less than 80% if your average becomes 80%), then as a BEST CASE SCENARIO, you will get above an 80 ATAR. HOWEVER, it also predicts a 77 in the lower range of ATARs that you can get.

So, will you get 80-90 if you can score 80% on everything? Nobody can guarantee it. But, it's not entirely off the table. You just need to make sure to keep working hard and score as high as you possibly can.

thank you for your help! i will do my best :-)

cataclysm666

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2961 on: September 14, 2020, 10:23:30 am »
0
I am doing ancient history now, if you are scoring 50% on unit 3 for that subject I think you might be screwed (I am averaging 50's too don't worry). I am doing unit 3/4 history this year btw, but fear not ace the exam and you can get a much better score. Since most of your other subjects don't scale too well except physics, that might pull you down quite a bit, legal and further math in particular is quite competitive at the top end. I wish you all the best for remote learning and this year :)

ahh shi understandable. thank you for your help! wish you the best too :-)

Unknown-111

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2962 on: September 14, 2020, 11:13:21 am »
0
ahh shi understandable. thank you for your help! wish you the best too :-)
No problem :)
Can you tell me what topics did you guys cover in ancient history?

cataclysm666

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2963 on: September 14, 2020, 05:32:13 pm »
0
No problem :)
Can you tell me what topics did you guys cover in ancient history?

We covered Egypt aos 1 and 2 and are now covering Rome.

YehNahBro

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2964 on: September 14, 2020, 10:43:14 pm »
0
Hi,
I hope this is the right forum to post this question. Can someone help me give a guideline on the exam scores, given that my sac scores are pre good. I go to a selective school if that helps.
How many marks should i aim for in the following subjects if i wanted to get a:
Methods: 45
Spesh: 40
Chem: 45

Also, would you have to full mark chem and methods to get a 50?

Thanks in advance. Hope everyone is safe in these times <3

Sine

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2965 on: September 14, 2020, 10:50:31 pm »
+1
Hi,
I hope this is the right forum to post this question. Can someone help me give a guideline on the exam scores, given that my sac scores are pre good. I go to a selective school if that helps.
How many marks should i aim for in the following subjects if i wanted to get a:
Methods: 45
Spesh: 40
Chem: 45

Also, would you have to full mark chem and methods to get a 50?

Thanks in advance. Hope everyone is safe in these times <3
for a 45 in methods, it can vary quite a bit depending on the exam difficulty. IMO you should be aiming for 110+/120 but some years you might need something like 114/120 and others it may be slightly below 110/120.

Spesh it is generally loss of 1 mark = loss of 1 study score so 110/120 (maybe a little lower).

Chemistry roughly 105-110/120 depending on exam difficulty.

EDIT: for a 50 you usually don't need to full mark the exam.
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 10:57:56 pm by Sine »

YehNahBro

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2966 on: September 14, 2020, 11:23:24 pm »
0
for a 45 in methods, it can vary quite a bit depending on the exam difficulty. IMO you should be aiming for 110+/120 but some years you might need something like 114/120 and others it may be slightly below 110/120.

Spesh it is generally loss of 1 mark = loss of 1 study score so 110/120 (maybe a little lower).

Chemistry roughly 105-110/120 depending on exam difficulty.

EDIT: for a 50 you usually don't need to full mark the exam.

Thanks Sine for the heads up. Appreciate the help! Hopefully all goes well!!!

Unknown-111

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2967 on: September 15, 2020, 07:31:34 am »
+1
We covered Egypt aos 1 and 2 and are now covering Rome.
Same

Coolgalbornin03Lo

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2968 on: September 16, 2020, 02:42:17 pm »
0
Due to online learning technical difficulties I have failed a sac. I was previously on track to get a 45 (well not on track because these scores are never guaranteed but my sac scores where in that direction). I have now had two average sac scores one was my fault (getting flustered in the sac) the second was medicocre (I could not see or answer any questions within the sac as the platform would not load >:()

I know one average sac won’t do much harm but with these two average SACs my Unit 4 average is now exactly 80% with no SACs left :(
Unit 3 average was okay-ish 87% average.

The average for SACs is usually 70% and my friend was average mid 70s last year which turned into A+ for SACs and she got a 40 but I’m not counting on that scaling due to Covid and I know cohort strength fluctuates from year to year.

Is it still possible with these bad sac scores (assuming they don’t scale) to still yield 45-ish if I get 85% on the exam? I’m so crushed and feel like I should just give up.
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keltingmeith

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Re: Study Score Prediction Question Thread
« Reply #2969 on: September 16, 2020, 03:11:08 pm »
+4
Due to online learning technical difficulties I have failed a sac. I was previously on track to get a 45 (well not on track because these scores are never guaranteed but my sac scores where in that direction). I have now had two average sac scores one was my fault (getting flustered in the sac) the second was medicocre (I could not see or answer any questions within the sac as the platform would not load >:()

I know one average sac won’t do much harm but with these two average SACs my Unit 4 average is now exactly 80% with no SACs left :(
Unit 3 average was okay-ish 87% average.

The average for SACs is usually 70% and my friend was average mid 70s last year which turned into A+ for SACs and she got a 40 but I’m not counting on that scaling due to Covid and I know cohort strength fluctuates from year to year.

Is it still possible with these bad sac scores (assuming they don’t scale) to still yield 45-ish if I get 85% on the exam? I’m so crushed and feel like I should just give up.

I haven't told many people this - but I absolutely HATE predicting study scores. Kinda ironic (and maybe hypocritical?) since I made a calculator to do it for me, eh? But I honestly think study score prediction helps no one, because either one of two things typically happen:

1. I tell someone that they will get the score they want - they then become complacent, their marks drop, they no longer get that score, and just feel bad about it. (they may also blame me, but tbh, that's not something I'm too concerned about, I'm more upset that they no longer got the score they wanted or were on track to get)

2. I tell someone that they won't get the score that they want - they then lose motivation to do well, and end up doing EVEN WORSE than they could've. Maybe I tell them they won't get a 40, but could still get a 38 - but because that 40 is out of reach, they instead just lose hope and end up with a 33.

Now - I'm not saying this is going to happen to you, and I don't mean for this to come across as a lecture or for it to make you feel bad or worse than you currently do (and if I've had that effect - I truly am sorry). But, I can already see that you're losing motivation, and I don't want to crush that motivation even more than it already is. Anybody can ignore my post and give you a prediction anyway, but I have to ask before I look at your scores and try to predict them properly myself. Would you rather:

1. Know your score, with the risk of losing all hope and motivation if you can't get 45?
2. Live without knowing what the current prediction is, and so with the motivation that there's still a chance you can get above 45?

This isn't a call out to you personally - I would be asking this question to anyone who's feeling upset and potentially a little disillusioned. I know you've been working hard, I've seen it personally in all the questions you ask and your constant work on the board - I just don't want to ruin all the effort you've put in so far by dooming you to get lower scores in your upcoming assessments.

It's also worth knowing that nobody can know how a certain grade distribution will be - so even if I predict you getting below a 45, that doesn't mean it will happen, because the distribution might lower this year. But by the same token, the distribution may raise this year, and I might falsely predict you getting above 45.