Probability of getting an offer with an ATAR slightly below cut-off

[crawlingvines]

Apologies if this has been discussed already, but I've been conjuring up worst case scenarios on the ATAR calculator and I'm curious as to how likely it is to get a course offer when you haven't managed to scrape past the cut-off score.

For example, with a popular course like Melb Uni's BSc which has a clearly-in of 85, what are the chances of getting an offer with an 84? (No special considerations or Access Melbourne bonuses are applicable)

Just desperately attempting to alleviate my anxiety over here 

[AngelWings]

From another post of mine:

Remember clearly-ins are not set in stone. Many fall under it, so you just never know.
Preference #1 should always be what you want to study most, with only one exception - conditional offers that state you must put them as first as your preferences. 

The clearly-ins are just guides. They fluctuate ever year depending on demand and the number of spots that are available. Many actually still get in via subject bonuses or sometimes luck out and simply have room to fit one more enthusiastic student, without SEAS even being involved. There used to be stats showing percentage of people who'd get in without getting the clearly-in ATAR on VTAC Course Search, but I think it's been removed.

For example, with a popular course like Melb Uni's BSc which has a clearly-in of 85, what are the chances of getting an offer with an 84? (No special considerations or Access Melbourne bonuses are applicable)

Still somewhat good, particularly if you have subject bonuses available.