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General Discussion => General Discussion Boards => News and Politics => Topic started by: vox nihili on April 09, 2019, 02:05:14 pm

Title: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on April 09, 2019, 02:05:14 pm
With the federal election hopefully to be called by the end of the week, it's high-time we start a thread to discuss it.

This thread will include updates on what's happening during the campaign. From time to time, I will also drop in questions to get the discussion going. So without further ado, let's get started!

Question 1: Who will you be voting for? Why?
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: K888 on April 09, 2019, 07:19:04 pm
The only thing I'm interested in is where I can get a democracy sausage.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Joseph41 on April 11, 2019, 08:15:37 am
May 18.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on April 11, 2019, 07:13:02 pm
The only thing I'm interested in is where I can get a democracy sausage.

Will sadly report that my local voting booth did not have a democracy sausage at the state election. Ripped off.

May 18.

And so it is. This is as late as they could possibly make it, which seems like a reasonably sensible plan if your government hasn't won a poll ever.

Talk about a May 25th date was probably a little silly. I'm sure they considered it, but it chucked up some legal issues.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: K888 on April 11, 2019, 09:40:38 pm
Also, just a reminder to people that if you've changed address recently to update your details on the electoral commission website so that you're in the correct seat/division :)
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on April 11, 2019, 10:44:15 pm
VoteCompass is now live! Post your results :D
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on April 12, 2019, 10:22:43 am
Question 1: Who will you be voting for? Why?
I'm still enrolled in Wills, haven't really decided if I'm going to update my address or not. I'm thinking I probably won't because I don't even know who the candidates here are. Also Wills is somewhat marginal and Canberra is a safe Labor seat lol.

I'm sure it's no surprise that I'll be voting for the Greens, although honestly I don't know if that'd be the case if I changed my address, I guess I'd have to figure out who the candidates round here are at least.

The candidates in Wills are Peter Khalil (labor) and Adam Pulford (greens) and a bunch of other people who have no chance

Peter supposedly has been doing some good stuff locally, I kind of dislike him because of how crap his campaign was in 2016 though. I remember trying to look him up at the time and all I could find was generic speeches about generic policies (mostly housing affordability, which seems to be what labor campaigns on in that area). Compared to Samantha Ratnam who was the greens candidate at the time (she's now the leader of the victorian greens) who was constantly out talking to people and attending community events and stuff (apparently she's very convincing), to me it kinda seemed like he was just there to be a generic labor member. Locally though, he seems to be doing fine so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of people voting for him because of that. More widely though, labor policies just aren't moving fast enough - their target is 50% renewable energy by 2030. Last year renewable energy made up 21% of Australia's energy generation - the year before that it was 17% and the year before that 17.3%. Given the 12 years we have to limit the worst of climate damage, their target being 50% by 2030 is kinda ridiculous.

Despite the swing to the greens at the last election, and the greens winning my state electorate, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Labor wins the seat again. There's a lot of very left wing people in my area, and I'd imagine that climate change would be a big issue for a lot of them. However, the more north you go the more labor it gets, which tends to be why Brunswick and Northcote (state electorates) are more green than Wills and Batman (the federal electorates encompassing them). As much as I'd like Adam to win it, I think I'm expecting it to go to labor again. At least the results are interesting to watch when it's close.

(https://i.imgur.com/an68BgE.png)
I find it kinda funny that there's any similarity with one nation. Although if you actually go through and click on their policy it doesn't really match up, the abc just split the policy into agree-disagree options. Although I'd argue that some of the statements from One Nation don't justify them being put in the category they are in.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on April 12, 2019, 02:31:44 pm
I'm still enrolled in Wills, haven't really decided if I'm going to update my address or not. I'm thinking I probably won't because I don't even know who the candidates here are. Also Wills is somewhat marginal and Canberra is a safe Labor seat lol.

I'm sure it's no surprise that I'll be voting for the Greens, although honestly I don't know if that'd be the case if I changed my address, I guess I'd have to figure out who the candidates round here are at least.

The candidates in Wills are Peter Khalil (labor) and Adam Pulford (greens) and a bunch of other people who have no chance

Peter supposedly has been doing some good stuff locally, I kind of dislike him because of how crap his campaign was in 2016 though. I remember trying to look him up at the time and all I could find was generic speeches about generic policies (mostly housing affordability, which seems to be what labor campaigns on in that area). Compared to Samantha Ratnam who was the greens candidate at the time (she's now the leader of the victorian greens) who was constantly out talking to people and attending community events and stuff (apparently she's very convincing), to me it kinda seemed like he was just there to be a generic labor member. Locally though, he seems to be doing fine so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a lot of people voting for him because of that. More widely though, labor policies just aren't moving fast enough - their target is 50% renewable energy by 2030. Last year renewable energy made up 21% of Australia's energy generation - the year before that it was 17% and the year before that 17.3%. Given the 12 years we have to limit the worst of climate damage, their target being 50% by 2030 is kinda ridiculous.

Despite the swing to the greens at the last election, and the greens winning my state electorate, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Labor wins the seat again. There's a lot of very left wing people in my area, and I'd imagine that climate change would be a big issue for a lot of them. However, the more north you go the more labor it gets, which tends to be why Brunswick and Northcote (state electorates) are more green than Wills and Batman (the federal electorates encompassing them). As much as I'd like Adam to win it, I think I'm expecting it to go to labor again. At least the results are interesting to watch when it's close.

(https://i.imgur.com/an68BgE.png)
I find it kinda funny that there's any similarity with one nation. Although if you actually go through and click on their policy it doesn't really match up, the abc just split the policy into agree-disagree options. Although I'd argue that some of the statements from One Nation don't justify them being put in the category they are in.

I don't have a lot of time so sorry for short response!

Wills is a super interesting seat. I can't find it at the moment, but there was a really interesting graphic that showed the way the results in each of the booths compared. It basically described exactly what you said, with all of the booths in the south of the seat strongly Greens voting, but then as you get further north the boots start to turn red. I think some have dubbed it the "tofu curtain".


The Greens don't seem to be focusing particularly strongly on seats like Wills at this election, which is certainly odd. A lot of their public stuff has been really focused on the inner eastern seats, like Kooyong and Higgins. Even Macnamara (formerly Melbourne Ports) is seen as a target for the Greens, although you'd expect the orthodox Jewish population would provide a buffer against the Greens there.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Bri MT on April 14, 2019, 06:12:42 am
VoteCompass placed me on the diagonal between Labor & the Greens, closer to the Labor side. It also listed the Greens as party I agreed on the most policies with  (I'll edit in the photos when I'm not on mobile).

My seat (Lalor) is safely Labor's & I haven't fully decided my voting intentions yet.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on April 17, 2019, 07:58:58 pm
Just a reminder, if you're not yet enrolled and intend to enroll you need to do it by 8pm tomorrow.

Also worth noting that if you're not enrolled and don't intend to enroll you should probably check your enrollment status anyway. Not sure about the AEC but I know for the VEC they take data from other sources (including VCAA) and can enrol you without you having to do anything.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Aaron on April 17, 2019, 08:03:13 pm
Quote
Not sure about the AEC but I know for the VEC they take data from other sources (including VCAA) and can enrol you without you having to do anything.
Also applies if you have a my.gov account or use any of its services - e.g. centrelink, tax office, medicare etc.

I updated my address on my.gov and a few weeks later got a letter from the AEC saying they had notice from another government agency that my details had changed and they'd be updating my division etc.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on April 17, 2019, 08:10:08 pm
I updated my address on my.gov and a few weeks later got a letter from the AEC saying they had notice from another government agency that my details had changed and they'd be updating my division etc.
I was somewhat worried that they'd do that to me but it seems I'm getting away with it because my current address is listed as a term address not a home address - for centrelink at least.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on April 20, 2019, 12:55:15 pm
Why tf is this legal?

Quote
Is it legal for parties to check out what's on the form?
Yep. Mr Diak said there was nothing stopping political parties from "extracting and viewing" your postal vote application, if it's sent back to them in the envelope they supplied.

That means they could access your:

- Full name
- Date of birth
- Enrolled address
- Postal address
- Contact details (including your email address, mobile phone number and home phone number)
- A security question and answer
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-20/why-federal-election-candidates-are-sending-postal-vote-forms/11028154

Obviously sending the form back to a political party rather than directly to the AEC is a bad idea, but this just seems so wrong and deliberately misleading.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on April 25, 2019, 06:57:42 pm
Sorry for neglecting this thread for the past week or so, I've been away enjoying a holiday!


Question 2: What does the government owe its people?

-For this question, I want you to think about some of the more overarching divides in Australian politics. Where does the government's responsibility end? Where does the responsibility of an individual start?

Why tf is this legal?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-20/why-federal-election-candidates-are-sending-postal-vote-forms/11028154

Obviously sending the form back to a political party rather than directly to the AEC is a bad idea, but this just seems so wrong and deliberately misleading.

As far as I'm aware, political parties are exempted from the Privacy Act, so they can contact people on the do not call register etc etc. There's a lot of confusion around the postal votes (you don't seem to have been caught in it here) but to be clear no party asks for the completed votes to be sent to them, just the application forms. My impression is that parties do this to mine people's details, so that they can then contact you with calls etc. For the Liberals in particular, there's also an incentive to ensure people postal vote and don't just absorb the fine, because postal votes tend to favour the conservative side of politics.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Remy33 on April 26, 2019, 02:07:29 pm
Just discovered this thread! This is going to be a short response as I'm at school but here's my take on vox nihili's questions:

1. Who will you be voting for? Why?
I'm planning to vote Liberal. Don't hate me pleeeeaaase.
My seat is Lalor (same as Bri MT!) and my preferences are Liberal > Labor > other parties that have virtually no chance anyway > Greens
I don't necessarily agree with all of the fascists Liberal's policies. But the 3 main reasons as to why I'm voting for them is because of their stance against Safe Schools, asylum seekers. and section 18C.

2. What does the government owe its people?
Ooft. Broad question. I think a government's responsibility should mostly remain in the public sphere, providing its citizens with security and stability. On many social issues such as same-sex marriage, euthanasia, etc - I think it should be up to the individual and in no way should the state's views dictate what people can and cannot do. So I guess a very short answer to this question would be that the government owes its people more degrees of autonomy.

---

Quote from: PhoenixxFire
I find it kinda funny that there's any similarity with one nation. Although if you actually go through and click on their policy it doesn't really match up, the abc just split the policy into agree-disagree options. Although I'd argue that some of the statements from One Nation don't justify them being put in the category they are in.
It's funny how on many issues Greens and One Nation actually takes the same stance. Just my opinion, but after reading through both ON and Greens's statements - they DO actually share similar viewpoints, but just for vastly different reasons. For example regarding government subsidies to private health insurance: Greens disagree because the subsidies largely benefit those who are already financially better off; while ON disagrees because they just believes in less government intervention period.

---

Oh and here's where I stand on the spectrum:
(https://i.imgur.com/bO6PzXm.png)
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: hums_student on April 28, 2019, 06:10:46 pm
I'm not 18 yet so I can't vote, but if I could then it'd be Liberal - and this is coming from someone who had been a lefty his entire life. Political compass Vote compass placed me in between Labor and Liberal, closer to Labor, and also said that I agree with all four major parties by about only ~50% lol.

(https://i.imgur.com/3geIk6z.png)

1. Who will you be voting for? Why?
I'm planning to vote Liberal. Don't hate me pleeeeaaase.
Just my opinion, but I do find it funny (and somewhat concerning) that especially among young people, it is now more socially acceptable to show support for a far-left party like Greens than a centre-right party like Liberal. The reaction people give to "I vote liberal" is usually the reaction I'd only reserve for a special species known as Bob Katter supporters.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Ionic Doc on April 30, 2019, 11:46:01 am
lol

 One Nation is dead

nice one Dickson 😂

R.I.P  Pauline haha
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on April 30, 2019, 08:14:02 pm
lol

 One Nation is dead

nice one Dickson 😂

R.I.P  Pauline haha

Quick explainer for those who aren't UTD: Steve Dickson is ON's number two candidate for the Queensland senate. He's also a prominent figure in the ON party. Footage of him in a strip club saying some pretty horrible things to women (e.g. Asian women don't know how to fuck) got released on A Current Affair last night. He's since resigned.

This is crazy stuff, because he's the same guy who, on behalf of ON, travelled to the US to broker a deal with the US gun lobby (basically: we'll try to get rid of gun laws if you give us ten million dollars). That he resigns after saying some weird shit about sex, but doesn't resign after he literally betrays his country and tries to have removed one of our most successful policies speaks to the moral vacuity that is One Nation.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Joseph41 on May 01, 2019, 10:45:03 pm
Fantastic. Great move. Well done Angus.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on May 02, 2019, 03:51:21 pm
Major story out of the election this week has been candidates dropping like flies. The Liberals have lost a couple in Victoria yesterday. One for anti-muslim comments, another for being hopelessly homophobic.
Labor hasn't fared well either. One of their NT candidates is accused of being an anti-semite, whilst their candidate for Melbourne (a Greens seat) has had to apologise for making rape jokes in the past. Of course the Greens have form here too (they refused to disendorse a candidate who rapped about raping and abusing women), but so far they've gone ok.
The Liberals also earlier dumper their candidate for Corio (based in Geelong) because he said he actually quite liked his Labor opponent and didn't think unions were all too bad.

A number of other candidates have caused a stir but haven't been dumped. Gladys Liu (Lib, Chisholm VIC) made homophobic and misleading comments about Safe Schools and also said that the work practices of other migrants are inferior to the Chinese. Kate Ashmor (Lib, Macnamara VIC) has had four major gaffes...she criticised her opponent for not being Jewish enough because he doesn't have a mezzuzah on his campaign office, insinuated that Chloe Shorten is a pig, said that public schools are inferior to private schools and encouraged defunding them and, finally, said that leaders without children invariably lack empathy.

The pièce de résistance has to be Jessica Whelan (Lib, Lyons TAS). Among her contributions to the public debate is a social media post in which she encouraged Donald Trump to cut off their clitorises of feminists and sell them to Muslims in Muslim countries. The liberals response to this is that she didn't make the posts, and they've referred them to the AFP because they believe they've been doctored. Watch this space. I suspect she'll be gone soon, but it'll be tricky because ScoMo campaigned with her today (which was breathtakingly stupid by his campaign team).

This issue of dodgy candidates has been a really prominent one around the western world. There's a suggestion that it might be such a prominent issue now because of social media providing an avenue to dredge up stupid shit people have said.

It's been a particular problem in the UK, with the Conservative party dumping candidates left and right. The Labour party there, which has been captured by the far-left under Jeremy Corbyn, has arguably been beset by the same problems but, tragically, has been less willing to do something about it. They've had a terrible rise of anti-semitism within the party and have thus far steadfastly refused to do much about it, leading several Jewish MPs to quit.
Also, I haven't talked about One Nation, Fraser Anning's merry band of Nazis or Palmer United because having fuck wit candidates in those parties is par for the course.

Fantastic. Great move. Well done Angus.

Another ringing endorsement of the Rhodes scholarship
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on May 02, 2019, 04:39:47 pm
It's funny how on many issues Greens and One Nation actually takes the same stance. Just my opinion, but after reading through both ON and Greens's statements - they DO actually share similar viewpoints, but just for vastly different reasons. For example regarding government subsidies to private health insurance: Greens disagree because the subsidies largely benefit those who are already financially better off; while ON disagrees because they just believes in less government intervention period.
Yeah that's basically what I meant. You can't really tell the reasons for their policies just from where they sit on the agree/disagree thing though.

Just my opinion, but I do find it funny (and somewhat concerning) that especially among young people, it is now more socially acceptable to show support for a far-left party like Greens than a centre-right party like Liberal. The reaction people give to "I vote liberal" is usually the reaction I'd only reserve for a special species known as Bob Katter supporters.
I guess young people just don't want to be discriminated against for being different ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

You should start a news site vox.

Quote
Major story out of the election this week has been candidates dropping like flies. The Liberals have lost a couple in Victoria yesterday. One for anti-muslim comments, another for being hopelessly homophobic.
The homophobic guy was in my electorate - which is kinda funny given the greens candidate is a gay man. He's been making the most of the situation though
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on May 02, 2019, 05:11:03 pm
The homophobic guy was in my electorate - which is kinda funny given the greens candidate is a gay man. He's been making the most of the situation though


Was definitely an interesting call having a crack at gays in one of the most left-wing seats in the country, but y'know, whatever you want to try I guess.

I sort of live in two places and in both of the seats I'm in we've had candidates cause trouble. Kate Ashmor (from above) should be my local candidate, but I'm down in Corio (where the candidate got the arse because he said he liked Richard Marles).
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Joseph41 on May 07, 2019, 08:10:39 am
Just me, or has Shorten's media performance gone to the next level over the last few weeks?
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on May 07, 2019, 11:49:33 am
Just me, or has Shorten's media performance gone to the next level over the last few weeks?

I've been wondering this myself. Current theory is that there's been no change and that the media are reporting more positively because they're resigned to a Labor victory now.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Joseph41 on May 07, 2019, 12:09:15 pm
I've been wondering this myself. Current theory is that there's been no change and that the media are reporting more positively because they're resigned to a Labor victory now.

IMO he just seems a lot more polished and relaxed at the moment. Don't think it's a media perception thing, although that's probably also the case.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: turinturambar on May 07, 2019, 11:51:21 pm
Anyone else getting far too much mail?  Tonight I got 2 pro-Liberal-candidate, 1 anti-Liberal, 1 anti-Liberal (EDIT: anti-Labor - makes much more sense now, right?), and one nice yellow one from UAP.  Of course, a lot of it says exactly what I've heard in previous weeks (so, it's still misleading...). Am I the only one where it feels I'm less likely to accept a political message the more times I hear it repeated?

Also, anyone believe UAP can form government?  ;D  I've seen that claim from them too many times so far, and it seems particularly improbable - after all, it was based on their polling including 28% undecided, and an assumption that all of those undecided people would vote UAP...
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: strawberries on May 08, 2019, 01:26:15 pm
There's also a site called SmartVote where you can see how you match up with candidates and parties but it hasn't really been updated with minor parties, and also major party candidates just follow the 'party' line and thus all have the same answer.

personal thoughts on the election
Tbh I feel bad cos I couldn't care less about the election this year :/ It's weird cos I study politics at uni but I've been so busy with uni that I don't have time to follow :/ (not a good excuse I know :P) I'm registered at my parents' home in Melbourne, the seat is kinda safe Labor and I doubt it will change. And because I'm not in Melbourne atm I haven't received any mail :P (also walking around Canberra and I don't notice any signs at all???)

I did Vote Compass (cbf pasting screenshots) and was placed close to the centre but slightly closer to Labor than Liberal, but I matched up 57% with Liberal, 53% with Labor, 52% with Greens and 43% One Nation. What a centrist lol (I voted Greens in 2016 but I've definitely changed - there are like some policies I strongly agree yet strongly disagree with on each party so idk). I was pretty certain I was gonna vote Labor like up until a month or 2 ago but now I'm reconsidering. Idek what happened - nothing that has happened has changed my mind but I just feel like I should be educating myself more rather than sticking with the same mindset lol. My parents are also voting differently.

I really feel like I'm being a bad citizen. I really want someone to help educate me on what to do this election haha.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on May 08, 2019, 09:35:57 pm
IMO he just seems a lot more polished and relaxed at the moment. Don't think it's a media perception thing, although that's probably also the case.

Have had a few people remark to me the last couple of days how impressive he's been. Unlikely people too. His stuff on his mum today was brilliant.

Anyone else getting far too much mail?  Tonight I got 2 pro-Liberal-candidate, 1 anti-Liberal, 1 anti-Liberal, and one nice yellow one from UAP.  Of course, a lot of it says exactly what I've heard in previous weeks (so, it's still misleading...). Am I the only one where it feels I'm less likely to accept a political message the more times I hear it repeated?

Also, anyone believe UAP can form government?  ;D  I've seen that claim from them too many times so far, and it seems particularly improbable - after all, it was based on their polling including 28% undecided, and an assumption that all of those undecided people would vote UAP...

UAP would be lucky to form a cogent thought let alone government.

There's also a site called SmartVote where you can see how you match up with candidates and parties but it hasn't really been updated with minor parties, and also major party candidates just follow the 'party' line and thus all have the same answer.

personal thoughts on the election
Tbh I feel bad cos I couldn't care less about the election this year :/ It's weird cos I study politics at uni but I've been so busy with uni that I don't have time to follow :/ (not a good excuse I know :P) I'm registered at my parents' home in Melbourne, the seat is kinda safe Labor and I doubt it will change. And because I'm not in Melbourne atm I haven't received any mail :P (also walking around Canberra and I don't notice any signs at all???)

I did Vote Compass (cbf pasting screenshots) and was placed close to the centre but slightly closer to Labor than Liberal, but I matched up 57% with Liberal, 53% with Labor, 52% with Greens and 43% One Nation. What a centrist lol (I voted Greens in 2016 but I've definitely changed - there are like some policies I strongly agree yet strongly disagree with on each party so idk). I was pretty certain I was gonna vote Labor like up until a month or 2 ago but now I'm reconsidering. Idek what happened - nothing that has happened has changed my mind but I just feel like I should be educating myself more rather than sticking with the same mindset lol. My parents are also voting differently.

I really feel like I'm being a bad citizen. I really want someone to help educate me on what to do this election haha.

Thanks for bringing up SmartVote! We haven't discussed it here yet. Similar idea to VoteCompass, but the advertising around it is a lot more direct (it suggests itself as a tool to help you vote). That concerns me, as my own results were a poor reflection of what I believe in at times. For example, the Health Australia party was suggested to me as a party I should preference highly, despite their platform of anti-vaccination, pro-naturopathy being the antithesis of what I believe in.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: K888 on May 08, 2019, 10:22:11 pm
Anyone else getting far too much mail?  Tonight I got 2 pro-Liberal-candidate, 1 anti-Liberal, 1 anti-Liberal, and one nice yellow one from UAP.  Of course, a lot of it says exactly what I've heard in previous weeks (so, it's still misleading...). Am I the only one where it feels I'm less likely to accept a political message the more times I hear it repeated?

Also, anyone believe UAP can form government?  ;D  I've seen that claim from them too many times so far, and it seems particularly improbable - after all, it was based on their polling including 28% undecided, and an assumption that all of those undecided people would vote UAP...
The inner teenager within me always makes me want to specifically not vote for anyone who sends me mail lol.


Overall I've heard news about Shorten and Morrison but I genuinely only know of one candidate in my seat (Isaacs) and that's the guy who already has it. The other one I knew about got dumped for a massive Islamophobic rant. Probably related to me being too busy with uni to take any notice or do extra reading but I feel like I was definitely more aware of things going on with the state election last year.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on May 13, 2019, 03:17:14 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-13/election-2019-vote-compass-left-right-polarisation/11095554?

Australia electorates from most left to most right according to vote compass data.

Interestingly both Batman Cooper and Wills (labor held) are more left than Melbourne (greens held).

Found this graphic interesting
(https://i.imgur.com/a2WLUN1.png?1)
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on May 13, 2019, 03:25:52 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-13/election-2019-vote-compass-left-right-polarisation/11095554?

Australia electorates from most left to most right according to vote compass data.

Interestingly both Batman Cooper and Wills (labor held) are more left than Melbourne (greens held).

Found this graphic interesting
(https://i.imgur.com/a2WLUN1.png?1)

This is a really cool graphic. Still lowkey sus on VoteCompass, but it's an interesting divide.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Joseph41 on May 13, 2019, 03:27:52 pm
Still lowkey sus on VoteCompass

In what sense?
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Natasha.97 on May 14, 2019, 09:24:41 pm
I voted for the Greens after reading their policies, voted for Labor before but did not realise that MNCs were donating large amounts of money to them, therefore resulting in the lack of action against climate change.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on May 14, 2019, 10:56:55 pm
I voted for the Greens after reading their policies, voted for Labor before but did not realise that MNCs were donating large amounts of money to them, therefore resulting in the lack of action against climate change.

Certainly someone primarily interested in climate change would be likely to vote Greens at this election, because their policies on reducing emissions are much more aggressive than Labor's, but I'm not sure it's entirely fair to say that Labor has contributed a relatively poor climate policy because of their donations. This doubtless makes a contribution, but it's a lot more complex than that.

Climate politics has been a poison chalice in Australian politics for a long time. It brought down Rudd, likely brought down Gillard, didn't touch Abbott and then brought down Turnbull. All the while the Greens haven't handled this particularly well either. They, somewhat opportunistically, tried to differentiate themselves from Labor by voting down the ETS. This led to Rudd's removal and Gillard then minority government. In minority government they insisted on a flat tax (which is probably equal to or inferior to an ETS) that actually covered a much narrower base than the original ETS, but legislated stronger targets (largely irrelevant). The end result was that we were left with a politically dangerous climate policy that was scrapped as soon as Abbott came in. Moreover, the policy played better in the hands of Greens supporters because tax sounds better than ETS and targets look useful and actionable, even when they're not really.

Obviously I do say a lot of that as a criticism of the Greens, which those who read my shit here will know I am no big fan of. However, it also illustrates that climate politics in Australia has been horribly fraught. It's likely that this has contributed to the horrible dearth of policy we see from the major parties. The absence of a price on carbon being one of the most significant policy failures.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Natasha.97 on May 15, 2019, 02:28:20 am
Certainly someone primarily interested in climate change would be likely to vote Greens at this election, because their policies on reducing emissions are much more aggressive than Labor's, but I'm not sure it's entirely fair to say that Labor has contributed a relatively poor climate policy because of their donations. This doubtless makes a contribution, but it's a lot more complex than that.

Climate politics has been a poison chalice in Australian politics for a long time. It brought down Rudd, likely brought down Gillard, didn't touch Abbott and then brought down Turnbull. All the while the Greens haven't handled this particularly well either. They, somewhat opportunistically, tried to differentiate themselves from Labor by voting down the ETS. This led to Rudd's removal and Gillard then minority government. In minority government they insisted on a flat tax (which is probably equal to or inferior to an ETS) that actually covered a much narrower base than the original ETS, but legislated stronger targets (largely irrelevant). The end result was that we were left with a politically dangerous climate policy that was scrapped as soon as Abbott came in. Moreover, the policy played better in the hands of Greens supporters because tax sounds better than ETS and targets look useful and actionable, even when they're not really.

Obviously I do say a lot of that as a criticism of the Greens, which those who read my shit here will know I am no big fan of. However, it also illustrates that climate politics in Australia has been horribly fraught. It's likely that this has contributed to the horrible dearth of policy we see from the major parties. The absence of a price on carbon being one of the most significant policy failures.

Apologies for not clarifying further. As an LGBTQ, multi-lingual, self-diagnosed Chinese aspie, Australian citizen by birth but raised in Hong Kong as that was where my father worked, they are the only party who truly represent me.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on May 16, 2019, 05:15:03 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/canberra-prepoll-station-police-called-candidate-fight/11120166
lol

Quote
Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) staff have called police to a pre-polling booth in Canberra after an altercation between Liberal candidate Mina Zaki and a Labor volunteer.

Officials for the AEC reported the incident to police after Ms Zaki, who is running in the seat of Canberra, told Labor Senate candidate Katy Gallagher to "put a leash on your dog", referring to a volunteer who was campaigning outside a polling booth in Canberra's inner-north.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Joseph41 on May 16, 2019, 05:16:12 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/canberra-prepoll-station-police-called-candidate-fight/11120166
lol


Big yikes.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on May 16, 2019, 08:12:28 pm
Former Prime Minister, and Bill Shorten mentor, Bob Hawke has died.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Joseph41 on May 16, 2019, 08:26:56 pm
Former Prime Minister, and Bill Shorten mentor, Bob Hawke has died.

Sad news.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: K888 on May 16, 2019, 11:18:25 pm
Political afficionados, what are franking credits and why is there a big deal about them? Google only gives me big financial terms that I understand approximately 0% of lol.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Professor Polonsky on May 16, 2019, 11:36:30 pm
Political afficionados, what are franking credits and why is there a big deal about them? Google only gives me big financial terms that I understand approximately 0% of lol.
I'll try to be relatively thorough, sorry if this gets too detailed.

The (main) way companies can distribute their profits back to shareholders is by issuing dividends. The company might decide, for example, to issue a $1 dividend per share that you own.

Company profits are taxed - in Australia, 30%. That means that the dividend had already been taxed. Dividends are also taxed as personal income for the investor, at regular income tax rates (which would vary between investors, of course).

To avoid this 'double-taxation', in Australia we have what's known as dividend franking. Essentially, the investor receives a tax credit equal to the tax that the company had already paid on the dividend. Say your tax liability was $1000, but the franking credit is $120 (i.e. you received $400 in dividends, which taxed at a 30% rate means a $120 tax liability for the company), you only need to pay $880 in tax. The effect of this is that rather than the dividend getting taxed at the company tax rate, it's actually only taxed at the individual investor's income tax rate, which could be higher or lower than the 30% corporate tax rate. Australia is fairly unique in having this 'fully-franked' imputation system.

Now, what happens if you have no income tax liability (i.e. you're a retiree)? As a further innovation on our dividend imputation system, Howard introduced cash refunds. So now you get that $120 as straight up cash from the government. The dividend doesn't get taxed at all, not in corporate tax and not for the investor.

Labor wants to abolish those cash refunds, except for pensioners.

The way this mechanically works with receiving the credit is a little different than described, but the outcome is the same.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on May 17, 2019, 01:25:19 am
I'll try to be relatively thorough, sorry if this gets too detailed.

The (main) way companies can distribute their profits back to shareholders is by issuing dividends. The company might decide, for example, to issue a $1 dividend per share that you own.

Company profits are taxed - in Australia, 30%. That means that the dividend had already been taxed. Dividends are also taxed as personal income for the investor, at regular income tax rates (which would vary between investors, of course).

To avoid this 'double-taxation', in Australia we have what's known as dividend franking. Essentially, the investor receives a tax credit equal to the tax that the company had already paid on the dividend. Say your tax liability was $1000, but the franking credit is $120 (i.e. you received $400 in dividends, which taxed at a 30% rate means a $120 tax liability for the company), you only need to pay $880 in tax. The effect of this is that rather than the dividend getting taxed at the company tax rate, it's actually only taxed at the individual investor's income tax rate, which could be higher or lower than the 30% corporate tax rate. Australia is fairly unique in having this 'fully-franked' imputation system.

Now, what happens if you have no income tax liability (i.e. you're a retiree)? As a further innovation on our dividend imputation system, Howard introduced cash refunds. So now you get that $100 as straight up cash from the government. The dividend doesn't get taxed at all, not in corporate tax and not for the investor.

Labor wants to abolish those cash refunds, except for pensioners.

The way this mechanically works with receiving the credit is a little different than described, but the outcome is the same.

In some respects the current system is kind of like walking into Myer and saying “I’d like my refund now” without having bought anything.
There are some retirees that have aggressively pursued shares so that they can use refunds to fund their retirement; however, most tend to have a high level of personal wealth. Indeed, the only modelling available on this policy indicates that it overwhelming affects the wealthiest quintile of Australians.

Some argue that it provides an incentive to invest in shares, and that is certainly true. Others have said that removing the cash refunds will harm self-funded retirees, but this is disingenuous. Technically they’re self-funded, but in essence they’re relying on a government handout to do it.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: appleandbee on May 17, 2019, 06:51:42 pm
So I voted Greens for the first time today. I'm still a bit iffy since the seat is one of the most marginal ones (Macnamara- 3 way contest) and I really don't want a Coalition government. I'm also concerned about anti-semitism regarding the candidate's staffer as well as Hodgins-May's decision to not attend to not attend a Q&A conducted by a Zionist organisation ahead of the last federal election. I don't neccessarily think she should be held account for extreme (or towards that end) anti-semitism of other members of the party unless Greens can form gov, but still concerned by the Q&A boycott (probably at the forfront of my mind because I in a relationship with someone who is affected by these things and we talked a lot about broader anti-semitism). Ultimately though the prioritisation on climate action and positive campaigning made me inclined to vote for her even though I'm still a bit iffy.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on May 18, 2019, 01:10:18 pm
Took me an hour to vote at an interstate polling center. Should have postal voted. On the plus side, there wasn't anyone handing out how to vote cards. Also saw some people in Anning shirts later, sadly did not have any eggs on me.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: vox nihili on May 18, 2019, 01:39:34 pm
Fucking pumped for Day 1 of the Bill Shorten prime ministership yeah boi
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: sweetiepi on May 18, 2019, 02:09:50 pm
Fucking pumped for Day 1 of the Bill Shorten prime ministership yeah boi
Speaking of Bill, a person I know from my course managed to snag a photo with him earlier today haha.

I also got asked if I was even old enough to vote aha. Amazing.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Orb on May 18, 2019, 04:01:37 pm
Something interesting i've noticed - there are a large number of betting markets out there on the federal election, and so hypothetically if you owned a betting agency it seems like you can 'buy' votes.

Eg. for your first $20 (or random sum) placed on the coalition (or any other party) to win you get enhanced odds if they win. If supposed party bets on the coalition, you'd think they'd probably vote for the party they bet on as there's now a short-term financial incentive to vote whoever the incentive was placed on.

I'm sure there's regulations against this, but in a lesser regulated market it seems feasible to 'buy' votes and thus heavily influence your preferred party.

Just some food for thought.


Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on May 18, 2019, 07:53:06 pm
The greens ain't doing good

Fucking pumped for Day 1 of the Bill Shorten prime ministership yeah boi
Still feeling so confident?
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: brothanathan on May 18, 2019, 09:05:05 pm
The greens ain't doing good
Still feeling so confident?

Arguably because of communist ideologies
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Professor Polonsky on May 18, 2019, 09:09:37 pm
Oh blah.

Greens are doing fine, btw. Not their #1 fan but their vote has generally held up. Labor's hasn't.

There'll be a lot of commentary about how or why this happened, but there's a strong suggestion it's the 65+ and the dividend imputation changes we discussed above that killed Labor. Very sad that real reform in this country just can't happen.
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Lear on May 18, 2019, 09:11:49 pm
Fucking pumped for Day 1 of the Bill Shorten prime ministership yeah boi

:/
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Remy33 on May 18, 2019, 09:16:50 pm
Fucken pumped for another 3 years of the LNP yeah boi
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: PhoenixxFire on May 18, 2019, 09:19:23 pm
Greens are doing fine, btw. Not their #1 fan but their vote has generally held up. Labor's hasn't.
Not in my seat
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: turinturambar on May 18, 2019, 10:43:05 pm
There'll be a lot of commentary about how or why this happened, but there's a strong suggestion it's the 65+ and the dividend imputation changes we discussed above that killed Labor. Very sad that real reform in this country just can't happen.

I remember last year (?) when Labor first announced that policy and a co-worker was talking about it.  I was really surprised to hear about the current status quo, and to me Labor's policy just made sense. But it has certainly laid them open to a lot of attack.  So yes, I'm also disappointed.

At the moment it's looking like swings towards ALP in most Victorian seats, including Liberal held ones like mine - just not enough to have seats change hands. Unlike QLD and NSW.

A co-worker said to me yesterday "If the election is called Saturday night, it will have to be for Labor. It could only be Liberal if it was a very tight result". Sadly, it seems not so.  It's hard sometimes to remember that Victoria isn't representative of the rest of Australia...

So ends the "Climate Change election".  What comes next?
Title: Re: Federal Election 2019
Post by: Professor Polonsky on May 18, 2019, 11:21:46 pm
Not in my seat
Is that Canberra? They're up 6% on their 2016 result. It was all a PR stunt, they were never a chance there.

Oh, wait. Just saw about voting interstate. Cooper or Wills then, I'm guessing? The only two seats where Greens went backwards I'm aware of.