(3U (+ harder 3U for the 4U course) probability isn't founded on basic intuition. It's entirely combinatorial. It all relies on \( P(\text{Event}) = \frac{\text{No. of favourable outcomes}}{\text{Total outcomes}}\).)
But yeah, perms and combs are probably the hardest thing in 4U and ultimately you're never alone with it. I wasn't good at it in high school either.
In my lecture, I've stated techniques on how combinatorics problems can be approached. You should review them and see if there's any techniques you can get out of it. There's an example to go with each technique to suggest how it can be used, and the techniques do cover quite a fair lot of possibilities. But of course they might not cover every possibility (because you never know what they would throw with perms and combs) so definitely raise any that you don't feel are covered.
(A few extra tips were mentioned in my MX2 notes, but if you don't have a copy of that I obviously wouldn't push for it days before the exam.)
Also, it does require some common sense and some intuition. Break the problems down, and compare them to problems you've done in the past, but don't be scared to put some common sense into it.
With circle geometry, the theorems are obviously the same as in 3U. The jump to 4U however typically involves a) more of a need to construct lines by yourself, and b) things becoming less obvious (e.g. use of the word 'similarly', use of similar triangles etc.). Remember for inequalities you can always work backwards on the side to help out