Can year 10 grades correlate to an ATAR prediction?

[dashnog]

I've always been wondering, with my grades sitting mostly at 85-95% across the board with a few 100%s sprinkled in there, is there a way I could somehow at least roughly predict what kind of ATAR I will get?
I see ATAR predictors around everywhere, but nothing for pre-year-11, so is there some way I could predict my score and therefore plan goals before VCE begins?

[Lear]

There’s a very long time to go. I highly doubt anyone or anything can predict your ATAR with some basis to any degree of accuracy. However, you are encouraged to be working hard on your studies as you already have. I believe that a strong basis is needed for vce that is only built in earlier years. This is especially true for English and math to an extent.

[Aaron]

There have been so many questions in relation to this on here.

Short answer: Not really.

VCE is a whole different ballgame in comparison to Year 10. Your actual ATAR depends on several factors such as your rank, competition of the cohort etc... so it does depend on some factors outside of your control.

In saying that, though, if you were a high performing student in Year 10 Maths for example, you would perhaps have an advantage (to a degree) over somebody else doing the same Maths subject as you. But you know... a year or two is a long time and significant changes to study habits etc. can be made over that period of time.

Judging somebody based primarily on Year 10 results would be inaccurate and unfair.

I have personally seen students turn things around. Jeez, if I judged myself based on my Year 10 results, I would probably not have even gone to university!

[EEEEEEP]

I've always been wondering, with my grades sitting mostly at 85-95% across the board with a few 100%s sprinkled in there, is there a way I could somehow at least roughly predict what kind of ATAR I will get?
I see ATAR predictors around everywhere, but nothing for pre-year-11, so is there some way I could predict my score and therefore plan goals before VCE begins?

Long story short!

Life is never predictable, so is future performance.  You can NEVER predict your future ATAR =). ALso VCE/YR 11 + 12 is a totally different challenge!

There are people that:
- Do great in junior years, bad in senior years
- Do bad in junior  years, but great in senior years
- Have consistent performance over the years

Mate, just do your best and keep working hard =)

[Bri MT]

My year 9 science teacher told me at the end of the year that I wouldn't cope with VCE (note: they had reason & I'm grateful to them). The same teacher taught me bio 3/4 in year 11 and by halfway through we set the goal together of achieving an A on the exam. 

2 years can change a lot & that makes ATAR predictions very difficult

[Sine]

Definitely no real way to predict vce scores/atars based on year 10 scores let alone year 11 scores.

Although I do believe there would be a correlation between year 10 scores and vce scores (when comparing scores from the same cohort --> so same test/exam difficulty). I don't think I need to really statistically prove that generally people who do better in the lower year levels are more likely end up doing better in the higher year levels. Obviously there will be cases where people who do badly end up doing extremely well and others who are doing well turn out to do badly. However, there can still be a correlation even when including these individuals.

[IThinkIFailed]

Nope not at all. I’m in year 10 right now, and I’m in an accelerated program, so I basically did year 10 stuff in year 9. I got an A in year 10 science last year, getting a 98 for the exam. Well im doing bio 1 and 2 this year, and im sitting barely on a B. I genuinely think your year 10 marks do not correlate much towards what you will get in VCE. Instead, what does correlate is your work ethic and how engaged you are with learning. I was putting in the same effort as I did last year this year, and I’m not doing as well. I now know that I need to up my game if I want to get a high ATAR.

[Nexica]

Nope. For example, my school's year 10 math course is designed for people who want to do Further Maths in year 12, so it's easy. Compared to Specialist Maths though, it's hard. A student doing year 10 maths at my school could get 95-100% in it, while they could only get 40-50% in Specialist.
Therefore, year 10 grades can't really correlate to an accurate ATAR prediction.

[Joseph41]

Even when I was in VCE, my teacher's study score estimates were pretty wildly off in some cases!

[spectroscopy]

I knew alot of people who were averaging ~40% like me in year 10 and ended up getting >98 atars. I got a low 90's and i literally failed art in year 10. I also knew a few people who were dominating everything at school in year 9 and 10 and burnt out/got gf's/got addicted to video games/just stopped being good at school and got <80 atar. it really isn't much of a predication. there is of course some correlation because most people get similiar sorts of grades in all of high school but correlation does not equal causation so