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March 29, 2024, 06:21:20 am

Author Topic: Accuracy of ATAR calculators  (Read 5668 times)

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juicebox_441

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Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« on: May 05, 2021, 04:01:04 pm »
I was wondering how accurate is the QCE ATAR calculator? I am aware that it is an estimate based on past years' results, but has anyone used it before and got the predicted ATAR?? Or was it somewhat accurate?

Sine

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2021, 05:48:23 pm »
I was wondering how accurate is the QCE ATAR calculator? I am aware that it is an estimate based on past years' results, but has anyone used it before and got the predicted ATAR?? Or was it somewhat accurate?
If you are looking for it do predict your ATAR It is only accurate if you can accurately predict what you will score in your subjects. So it really isn't dependent on the calculator but the person inputting the numbers.

Anthony3262

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2021, 09:43:23 pm »
Hey mate,

I had a couple of friends that graduated last year and the calculator definitely isn’t 100% accurate. From the around 3 people’s marks I entered that I knew prior, the calc was around 1-3 whole ATAR scores off e.g. calc outputted 99.95 when someone got a 98 (sometimes it was even more off) . This was for the top percentiles with students at least ATAR’s of 95+. I think I saw something about it in another thread but on the VCAA scaling report they actually show what scaled score you need to get the appropriate ATAR. Whereas the QCAA report doesn’t so it makes the calculators not as accurate. The QCE ATAR calc seems to give you more of a ballpark of where you are sitting.

Hopefully that helps :)
« Last Edit: May 05, 2021, 09:51:02 pm by Anthony3262 »

Joseph41

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2021, 08:42:21 am »
Hey mate,

I had a couple of friends that graduated last year and the calculator definitely isn’t 100% accurate. From the around 3 people’s marks I entered that I knew prior, the calc was around 1-3 whole ATAR scores off e.g. calc outputted 99.95 when someone got a 98 (sometimes it was even more off) . This was for the top percentiles with students at least ATAR’s of 95+. I think I saw something about it in another thread but on the VCAA scaling report they actually show what scaled score you need to get the appropriate ATAR. Whereas the QCAA report doesn’t so it makes the calculators not as accurate. The QCE ATAR calc seems to give you more of a ballpark of where you are sitting.

Hopefully that helps :)

Yep, I think this is a good response. The current QCE ATAR Calc is accurate insofar as subject scaling, which is based on data from the 2020 cohort, but aggregate (TEA) to ATAR information is not currently available, meaning calculations should be taken as an estimate only.

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juicebox_441

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2021, 02:54:41 am »
If you are looking for it do predict your ATAR It is only accurate if you can accurately predict what you will score in your subjects. So it really isn't dependent on the calculator but the person inputting the numbers.

Okay thanks!

juicebox_441

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2021, 02:56:39 am »
Hey mate,

I had a couple of friends that graduated last year and the calculator definitely isn’t 100% accurate. From the around 3 people’s marks I entered that I knew prior, the calc was around 1-3 whole ATAR scores off e.g. calc outputted 99.95 when someone got a 98 (sometimes it was even more off) . This was for the top percentiles with students at least ATAR’s of 95+. I think I saw something about it in another thread but on the VCAA scaling report they actually show what scaled score you need to get the appropriate ATAR. Whereas the QCAA report doesn’t so it makes the calculators not as accurate. The QCE ATAR calc seems to give you more of a ballpark of where you are sitting.

Hopefully that helps :)

Man this is scary now lol, do you anyone who used the calculator and actually got the predicted ATAR? Thanks, this really helped!

Anthony3262

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2021, 07:40:23 pm »
The closest one was around 0.95 off. But the furtherest one away was at least 5 or so. It also always outputs a result higher than what the student got. The only reliable info that I have gotten in regards to ATAR calculations is from a school in Brisbane. Which has said in order to get an ATAR 99+ across your 5 subjects contributing to ATAR you could only lose a maximum of 25 marks after scaling. I guess if you were looking to get into the high percentiles that could be useful.  Not sure if that helps in your situation though.

Bri MT

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2021, 11:13:04 pm »
Imo even in the other states where there is more info available too much rides on guessing your subjects correctly to really "plan" around an ATAR calc [like Sine said earlier]; I tried plugging all sorts of numbers in in year 12 and I never correctly guessed all of my scores.

Look at it for an estimate but remember that your ability to predict your ATAR won't change what it actually is. It's a lot easier for me to say now that I'm a uni student, but try to put most of your energy where it'll actually make a difference - if you're spending a lot of time on the calc you should probably step away from them for a while.

juicebox_441

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2021, 11:38:29 am »
The closest one was around 0.95 off. But the furtherest one away was at least 5 or so. It also always outputs a result higher than what the student got. The only reliable info that I have gotten in regards to ATAR calculations is from a school in Brisbane. Which has said in order to get an ATAR 99+ across your 5 subjects contributing to ATAR you could only lose a maximum of 25 marks after scaling. I guess if you were looking to get into the high percentiles that could be useful.  Not sure if that helps in your situation though.
Thanks, I really needed these sort of information, they help a lot in my situation :) So what the school said is that after my subject's raw result has been scaled, the final result should only be 25 marks off at the maximum for all 5 of my subjects?

juicebox_441

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2021, 11:44:37 am »
Imo even in the other states where there is more info available too much rides on guessing your subjects correctly to really "plan" around an ATAR calc [like Sine said earlier]; I tried plugging all sorts of numbers in in year 12 and I never correctly guessed all of my scores.

Look at it for an estimate but remember that your ability to predict your ATAR won't change what it actually is. It's a lot easier for me to say now that I'm a uni student, but try to put most of your energy where it'll actually make a difference - if you're spending a lot of time on the calc you should probably step away from them for a while.

I'm aiming on scoring 80+ across all my subjects, which seems like my plan's going pretty well currently. I'm just concerned that the externals will snatch more marks so I was wondering what 85 raw could scale up to and what ATAR I could possibly get. But yeah you and Sine are right; I can never fully predict a grade :) Just wanted to get an idea of what my marks will get me to

Anthony3262

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2021, 02:35:54 pm »
Thanks, I really needed these sort of information, they help a lot in my situation :) So what the school said is that after my subject's raw result has been scaled, the final result should only be 25 marks off at the maximum for all 5 of my subjects?

Correct!  :)

Bri MT

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2021, 03:07:44 pm »
I'm aiming on scoring 80+ across all my subjects, which seems like my plan's going pretty well currently. I'm just concerned that the externals will snatch more marks so I was wondering what 85 raw could scale up to and what ATAR I could possibly get. But yeah you and Sine are right; I can never fully predict a grade :) Just wanted to get an idea of what my marks will get me to

Yeah wanting an idea makes complete sense and is what these types of tools are for :)

Good luck for your goal!

Daniel15

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Re: Accuracy of ATAR calculators
« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2021, 07:42:33 am »
From the around 3 people’s marks I entered that I knew prior, the calc was around 1-3 whole ATAR scores off e.g. calc outputted 99.95 when someone got a 98 (sometimes it was even more off) . This was for the top percentiles with students at least ATAR’s of 95+. I think I saw something about it in another thread but on the VCAA scaling report they actually show what scaled score you need to get the appropriate ATAR. Whereas the QCAA report doesn’t so it makes the calculators not as accurate

You're right... Since QCAA doesn't release a scaling chart from TEA to ATAR, the QCE calculator is currently using HSC data for that. However, there's some differences between the 2020 HSC student cohort vs the 2020 QCE student cohort such that the data really isn't as accurate as I'd like it to be, particularly around the higher ATAR scores. Until QCAA releases more data (if ever), I think the only way to make the calculator more accurate is perhaps by crowdsourcing our own data - that is, collecting data from a bunch of students to improve the estimations.
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