So, you're saying that assuming I stay in that same rank within the cohort, that means that the cohort has to also perform relatively well on the exam? What if it was; let's just say only me nailing the exam?
If only you nailed the exam, you'd get a high mark for GA3 (the exam component of your study score) which is worth 60%. If you didn't change your rank your GA1(unit 3 SACs) and GA2 (unit 4 SACs) grades would be low.
Since getting a 40 requires being in roughly the top 9% of the state, if your GA1 & GA2 grades are too low you won't be able to achieve that target.
That being said, you don't yet know how you or your cohort will perform on the exam and most of your assessment hasn't been completed yet - it's very hard to predict study scores with any kind of accuracy at this stage of the year