Login

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

March 29, 2024, 09:55:53 am

Author Topic: 2020 US Presidential Election  (Read 13379 times)  Share 

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Sine

  • Werewolf
  • National Moderator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *****
  • Posts: 5135
  • Respect: +2103
2020 US Presidential Election
« on: November 03, 2020, 10:53:04 am »
+8
Creating this thread to discuss any predictions leading into election day as well as conferring about the incoming results for the Presidential, Senate and House of Representatives elections once polls are closed.

As always it is important to adhere to the Rules of the ATAR Notes forums . Please have a read if you are not familiar with them  :)

Joseph41

  • Administrator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *****
  • Posts: 10823
  • Respect: +7477
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2020, 11:03:48 am »
+1
Honestly really looking forward to tomorrow. Should be interesting.

EDIT: Any predictions, Sine or others?
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 11:05:48 am by Joseph41 »

Oxford comma, Garamond, Avett Brothers, Orla Gartland enthusiast.

keltingmeith

  • Honorary Moderator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *******
  • Posts: 5493
  • he/him - they is also fine
  • Respect: +1292
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2020, 11:18:30 am »
+2
Am I the only one worried by how much prominence this election seems to have?

Like, we had a state election literal days ago, and it felt like people were too busy talking about the US election to even notice that QLD were having one

Sine

  • Werewolf
  • National Moderator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *****
  • Posts: 5135
  • Respect: +2103
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2020, 04:17:00 pm »
0
Honestly really looking forward to tomorrow. Should be interesting.

EDIT: Any predictions, Sine or others?
A lot of the polls and analytics are favouring Biden but I still think anything can happen and it might be closer than expected.

What are your thoughts on the situation?

S_R_K

  • MOTM: Feb '21
  • Forum Obsessive
  • ***
  • Posts: 487
  • Respect: +58
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2020, 05:21:48 pm »
+4
The states to watch tomorrow are Florida, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, all of which - provided that the result is not close - will declare their winner tomorrow. Trump needs to win all four to have any chance, so a Biden win in any one of these means a likely Biden win overall.

(Texas and Ohio are also forecasted to be relatively close, and a result known fairly quickly, and a Biden win here could mean 400+ EC, but it's unlikely)

Otherwise, we'll need to wait for Pennsylvania to finish counting, which won't be until end of the week.

turinturambar

  • Forum Obsessive
  • ***
  • Posts: 246
  • TÚRIN TURAMBAR DAGNIR GLAURUNGA
  • Respect: +184
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2020, 07:27:58 pm »
+1
I tend to trust FiveThirtyEight's take as about the best you can get from polling, because they go to the state level and look at the effect of different levels of deviation from the polling. That was how in 2016 they could be criticised for only giving Hillary 70% chance of winning, but it was because they predicted various paths to a Trump win including the one he actually took.  Polls are not reality, of course, but they have been pointing out since the convention season how unusually stable the polls have been.

Their frozen forecast gives Biden 89% chance - but much greater difficulty if he doesn't take Pennsylvania.  And a 97% chance of taking the popular vote.  They also give Democrats a 3 in 4 chance of taking the Senate, and I would be very interested in seeing what Democrats do with the power if they take Presidency, Senate, and House.  It would be nice to have a rare period of majority rule (though I'd also be concerned what the reprisals look like in 2 or 4 or 8 years...).

Trump (and to a lesser extent the GOP) have been trying to cast doubt on the postal vote for months.  If as expected the postal vote skews Democrat in key states and is counted later than in person vote, there are many concerning scenarios which could unfold.

Honestly really looking forward to tomorrow. Should be interesting.

I have too many friends in the US living in existential dread to look forward to it.  And that's not hyperbole, either.  They feel (and I tend to agree) that 4 years of Trump rule has done significant damage to the US project, and another 4 years may take a life-time to recover from.  And those friends include some life-long Republicans who are reluctantly voting Biden because they think Trump and a Trumpian GOP is too much of a threat to the nation and the world.

Am I the only one worried by how much prominence this election seems to have?

Like, we had a state election literal days ago, and it felt like people were too busy talking about the US election to even notice that QLD were having one

In fairness, unless you're living in Queensland or have close relatives there, the results of the US election will probably affect you more than the results of the Queensland election.  This is perhaps true of many US elections, but particularly of this one where there are such different visions on offer of the possible future of our strongest ally and an influential world super-power.  Among other things, this is their "climate change election", and I really hope they decide it differently to how we decided ours last year.
(though yes, I did know there was an election in Queensland - it's been mentioned far too often in border debates in the last few months to be missed ;) ).
“Fairy tales are more than true: not because they tell us that dragons exist, but because they tell us that dragons can be beaten.” – Neil Gaiman

PhoenixxFire

  • VIC MVP - 2018
  • Honorary Moderator
  • ATAR Notes Legend
  • *******
  • Posts: 3695
  • They/them/theirs
  • Respect: +3102
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2020, 07:48:47 pm »
+7
Not really sure if I'm gonna watch it or not. I do normally like watching election results but maybe not this one. There's been lots and lots of fear in online queer groups I'm in because of what another 4 years with Trump could mean and it's just really shit to read. I really fkn hope Trump doesn't win.

I've seen a fair bit about the queensland election but possibly just because I tend to pay attention to elections and also Canberra just had an election a few weeks ago too.
2019: B. Environment and Sustainability/B. Science @ ANU
2020: Just Vibing
2021: B. Paramedicine/B. Nursing @ ACU Canberra

keltingmeith

  • Honorary Moderator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *******
  • Posts: 5493
  • he/him - they is also fine
  • Respect: +1292
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2020, 10:48:07 am »
+5
Not really sure if I'm gonna watch it or not. I do normally like watching election results but maybe not this one. There's been lots and lots of fear in online queer groups I'm in because of what another 4 years with Trump could mean and it's just really shit to read. I really fkn hope Trump doesn't win.

I've seen a fair bit about the queensland election but possibly just because I tend to pay attention to elections and also Canberra just had an election a few weeks ago too.

I literally had no idea about Canberra. That's fucking wild.

Also, I want to say: people might remember half a decade ago on the forums where gay marriage came up and was discussed. I assume most of the regular users have no idea about this time, but for those that do remember, I want to say this. I was not a model for queer positivity or support then. But things have changed, and I have a much different mindset to then. And right now, I'm sure people are stressed and potentially upset for things that might happen to friends who live in the US, or online communities you're in that might be affected by what's happening in the US.

This isn't limited to the LGBTQIA+ community, either. This includes minorities, those who are ethnically different to your typical "white American", women, those with poor health, etc. If you are worried about anything, and need someone to talk to - my DMs are open. I can't say I'll respond immediately, but I will respond, and be there to listen. Nobody can fix anything, but we can listen to each other, and let them vent, and help them with the support of having someone to listen to.

This also includes if Biden getting in might worry you. I will be honest, I can't think of a situation where Biden getting in will put people at risk of not having basic human rights (like the right to feel safe, have a roof over your head, be fed, etc.) unless that's a situation which Trump won't be able to fix either, but it could just be that I'm misinformed or unknowledgeable of the situation. And even then - if it's something that makes you anxious, then you deserve to have someone to talk to and quell your fears, regardless of my own political leanings.

So please, if you're upset for any reason, and just need someone to talk to, please give me a buzz.

Orb

  • Part of the furniture
  • *****
  • Posts: 1649
  • Respect: +426
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2020, 03:52:43 pm »
+2
I like my maths and it seems like at the moment it's a bit of a coinflip.. most oddsmakers have Trump now as a 55-60% favourite but it hit around 75-80% at 1pm this afternoon. Trump looks on the verge of winning Florida meaning that it'll be a very tightly contested race either way.

Seems like one of the biggest coinflips in human history is about to happen with millions of lives at stake and all we can do is watch

One of my key takeaways is never trusting the polling ever again - it did not work for Australia a few years back (people were saying ALP had a 90%+ chance of winning) and is likely not working for the US election either


45+ raw score guaranteed (or 100% refund) for 2022 Methods & Specialist (other subjects also available - classes for all) register now!

Also hiring excellent Methods, Chemistry, Physics, Biology + Specialist tutors with a passion for excellence - PM me!

We also now support Chemistry, Physics and Biology!

vox nihili

  • National Moderator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *****
  • Posts: 5343
  • Respect: +1447
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2020, 04:26:56 pm »
+3
For those who are following closely, Georgia is back in play again. NYT had it as almost certain Trump victory but there's a massive sampling error in their prediction because most of the votes that haven't been counted are in Atlanta, which is very different to the rest of the state.
2013-15: BBiomed (Biochemistry and Molecular Biology), UniMelb
2016-20: MD, UniMelb
2019-20: MPH, UniMelb
2021-: GDipBiostat, USyd

Coolgalbornin03Lo

  • Forum Leader
  • ****
  • Posts: 542
  • Respect: +132
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2020, 05:04:18 pm »
+4
I don’t really follow politics but it makes me sad that thousands- NO, millions of people can vote for a person like trump who says certain (I won’t go into details) things about minority groups. It makes me feel unsafe in this world. I mean are People that bigoted they’d vote for someone who is regularly racist or sexist or homophobic etc. it just makes me upset that it’s 2020 and some people still support that or such blatant racism exists :(
My avatar sums up life.
“I’m free to be the greatest one alive” ~ Sia
╔══════════════════════════════╗
2020: English | Methods | Biology | Chemistry |              Psychology | ATAR: 0
╚══════════════════════════════╝

Joseph41

  • Administrator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *****
  • Posts: 10823
  • Respect: +7477
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2020, 05:06:42 pm »
+3
I have too many friends in the US living in existential dread to look forward to it.  And that's not hyperbole, either.  They feel (and I tend to agree) that 4 years of Trump rule has done significant damage to the US project, and another 4 years may take a life-time to recover from.  And those friends include some life-long Republicans who are reluctantly voting Biden because they think Trump and a Trumpian GOP is too much of a threat to the nation and the world.

Yeah, wasn't good phrasing, and agreed. I guess I meant I was very interested in it rather than looking forward to it.

Oxford comma, Garamond, Avett Brothers, Orla Gartland enthusiast.

Poet

  • MOTM: JUN 18
  • Part of the furniture
  • *****
  • Posts: 1612
  • Love. ~she/they
  • Respect: +2790
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2020, 05:27:21 pm »
+3
I'm a US citizen living in Australia and it makes me physically ill to watch how close these numbers are.
If Trump wins, millions will die. And still, they vote themselves into their own graves like blind lemmings.

Biden currently holds 49.9% of counted votes.
Trump holds 48.5%.
Thoughts are only thoughts.
They are not you. You do belong to yourself,
even when your thoughts don't.

Dealing with Year 12 - Put Your Mental Health at the Forefront
A Little Guide to Healthy Eating

keltingmeith

  • Honorary Moderator
  • Great Wonder of ATAR Notes
  • *******
  • Posts: 5493
  • he/him - they is also fine
  • Respect: +1292
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2020, 06:04:52 pm »
0
The thing to remember is that Trump is a character, and that character speaks a lot more to people than Biden does. A lot of US voters care more about the person in power than the policies they and their party support - which is dumb, but when all you can think about and hear from is one person talking about what they talk about, that's what a lot of the focus is on, as opposed to what policies their party supports and are in support of.

Then the next thing is Trump says a lot of shit about minorities - but that's the whole point, it's the minorities that are affected, not the larger voting populace. If you're not part of that minority, it's /really/ hard to put yourself in their shoes and realise how bad it is for them if Trump gets elected. Think about BLM (CW: racism and what led to the BLM movement)

CW: racism and what led to the BLM movement
If you weren't in the minority that suffers from police violence, all you saw was George Floyd being killed by a group of police officers. That was it. When you've spent your whole life being told the police are good, the police will protect you, and have had no evidence until now telling you anything otherwise, you're seeing people say a group of people you believed were beyond reproach as the literal worst thing in existence. That dissonance won't make you question the police, a group you love - it'll make you question Floyd, and his character, the thing you don't know ANYTHING about.

For every black person in America, they saw that, and they saw all the problems they've had to deal with come to light. It seems insane to think this, but African-Americans only represent 13.4% of the American population. That's /tiny/.

And it's a similar story for all the other horrible things Trump has said - they affect minorities, not the main voter demographic. Combine gerrymandering to control votes such that these minorities are split far and a part so that they have little affect on the vote, and you have a recipe for them to be drowned out and forgotten. More than 75% of Americans identify as only white, based on census data from last year. Easily enough to drown out the minority, and requires more than third of those white people to think outside their own circumstances and take a stand to help support the minorities.

There is one final thing I'll say - my housemate said it a lot, and I think it holds true here. In times of crisis, you stick with what you know. I think that's going to reflect a lot here. Sure, Biden might improve the response to COVID and save lives - but it's equally likely what he does will have no affect, and maybe it'll ruin the economy. At least with Trump, they know what to expect, and can just keep doing what they've been doing to fight it. I don't think this is a /good/ attitude to have, but it would explain what we're seeing in the amount of support Trump still has.

turinturambar

  • Forum Obsessive
  • ***
  • Posts: 246
  • TÚRIN TURAMBAR DAGNIR GLAURUNGA
  • Respect: +184
Re: 2020 US Presidential Election
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2020, 06:36:55 pm »
+1
There's some disappointments, but I'm not sure how much is different to what we knew at the start of the day.  We knew the most likely path to a Biden victory in a non-landslide would be through states with a high postal vote to count, that in person voting in those states would probably skew Trump while postal vote would skew Biden, and that that would then fuel claims of voter fraud (Trump has already tweeted about winning, and the election being stolen).  We also knew that Biden was likely to have more difficulty in Pennsylvania, but could come close to replacing it with Arizona.  Right now my read is that he's relying on the postal vote in at least Michigan and Wisconsin to give him a good chance, which is a little disturbing but again not too different from what we could predict ahead of time.

Looks much less likely the Democrats taking the Senate.  Which means even if Biden takes the presidency it will probably be harder for him to get things done.  It also pretty much guarantees the current Supreme Court continuing to hear important cases on human rights, workers rights, healthcare, etc.

The thing to remember is that Trump is a character, and that character speaks a lot more to people than Biden does. A lot of US voters care more about the person in power than the policies they and their party support - which is dumb, but when all you can think about and hear from is one person talking about what they talk about, that's what a lot of the focus is on, as opposed to what policies their party supports and are in support of.

Add to that that Trump isn't really a conventional Republican candidate anyway, which is why at least some who care about the party are vocally against him.

Biden currently holds 49.9% of counted votes.
Trump holds 48.5%.

Biden will almost certainly win the popular vote.  Unfortunately that's no guarantee of winning the election.  In just the same way as the Senate majority will probably continue to represent a minority of the population.
“Fairy tales are more than true: not because they tell us that dragons exist, but because they tell us that dragons can be beaten.” – Neil Gaiman