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vox nihili

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Brexit
« on: December 17, 2018, 06:29:29 pm »
+5
It's time we had a thread to discuss the glorious shitshow that is Brexit.


Not going to put a lot of info on the board at the moment, but will fill in the gaps for people once they comment if needed.

Basically, Theresa May has come back from the EU with a deal. It won't pass parliament. People are resigning left, right and centre, and the prospect of a second referendum is becoming more popular by the day. With the March 29 deadline looming, the UK is truly staring into the abyss. 

What's your take on the situation in the UK? Leave or remain? Go with May's deal, #peoplesvote or crash out of the EU?
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turinturambar

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2018, 09:20:32 pm »
+1
In a strongly divided country it's hard for me to see any option working out.  And that's just the Parliamentarians and the people as a whole, without considering the Ireland - North Ireland border, the Scottish independence movement, the fact that even if they were united the Conservatives are a minority government, probably many other things.  In that context, the Theresa May deal may have its flaws, but it is probably one of the best deals they can do. The Brexiteers thinking you can just reject it and then go back and negotiate a better deal seems delusional. (back when the original vote was taken I thought it was more likely that they would end up with some kind of a "customs union, not membership, most EU laws still apply".  Backstop discussions aside, that is obviously not the direction discussions in Britain took).

I think they would have been better to stay in in the first place, so I wouldn't be sorry for them to remain. But I'm really not sure that will work. Even if you have a "people's choice" second vote, it will take longer than they have to organise (though they may be able to extend the deadline), I'm not sure any option on the table will get a majority, and if it reverses Brexit many people will feel betrayed.  That whole conversation feels like it has only got more toxic in the last couple of years.

And No Deal Brexit has so many worrying logistics implications that it's hard to know where to begin.  If they reach it, it would be a perfect example of why brinksmanship is a dangerous political tactic.
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vox nihili

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2018, 04:22:18 pm »
+3
The day after I first posted here the whole situation went from bad to worse. The government decided to change tack, and asked Whitehall (the public service) to start ramping up their preparations for a no-deal Brexit. To be sure, they've already been preparing for this eventuality, so whilst this does have some practical effect, it's effectively a political statement by the government that no-deal is more likely. A lot of the changes that Whitehall have made have basically been to change the public information available on their websites, which now discuss some of the things that might happen if there is no deal. The government has also been careful to contribute to this discussion with some subtlety.

This has still occurred in a ridiculous political context. In the UK, their parliament affords a lot more freedom for backbenchers to express personal views, meaning that even if you are the member of a political party, you can still be highly critical of the government. This is what makes the kind of criticism that Theresa May has received from the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and Anna Soubry, as examples, perfectly reasonable of a party member in the British political system. What is similar to Australia though is that members of the executive (i.e. ministers) are expected to tow the line of the government. If they cannot agree with government policy, they are compelled to resign from the government and sit on the backbench. This is what has prompted a lot of the resignations we've seen over the years, mainly from Brexiters but also others like Jo Johnson. The name for this principle of support is collective responsibility.

Collective responsibility has basically broken down over the last couple of weeks, with cabinet ministers publicly pursuing alternatives to the PM's plans. This obviously happens in private all of the time, and sometimes gets leaked; however, doing so publicly is a violation of collective responsibility, the fact of which points towards the level of dysfunction within the British government at the moment. As examples, Andrea Leadsom (who is responsible for dealing with the House of Commons, and therefore really expected to be a strong supporter of Theresa May) has been pushing for a renegotiation of the deal TM has secured, Jeremy Hunt, who is Foreign Secretary, has been talking up a "managed no-deal" to position himself for the leadership when TM falls and Amber Rudd, whilst ostensibly supporting TM strongly on the deal she has secured, has been pushing for a second referendum (to be clear, she hasn't publicly advocated for it, but has made contributions to the debate that have basically done so).

It's a shambles atm folks!
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vox nihili

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2019, 02:04:32 pm »
+4
Since I last posted, this shitshow has really dialed it up a notch. Theresa May's deal went back to the House of Commons and was rejected by a margin of 230 votes, which is the largest commons loss by a government in British history. Jeremy Corbyn then went ahead with a motion of no confidence in the prime minister, which was duly rejected as expected.

Since then, we've seen a "plan B" from Theresa May, which involves no really significant change in her policy position. The Commons itself has passed legislation that makes the government more accountable to it. Meanwhile, the Labour party has been pushing for a another confidence vote, in the vain hope that it will succeed (it won't). They've also been openly debating whether or not to push for a second referendum, with the leadership still doing its best to subvert this course. A helpful reminder, yet again, that a second referendum would get up if the Labour party supported it—this is precisely why it's a bad idea to put your faith in radical politics, it doesn't really end up helping people on the ground.



I'm interested to hear your thoughts—how do you think this will be resolved? What will happen next? How would you like to see things pan out?
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turinturambar

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2019, 12:07:13 am »
0
They've also been openly debating whether or not to push for a second referendum, with the leadership still doing its best to subvert this course. A helpful reminder, yet again, that a second referendum would get up if the Labour party supported it—this is precisely why it's a bad idea to put your faith in radical politics, it doesn't really end up helping people on the ground.

Do you think a second referendum would actually help?  Yes, it might go some way towards breaking a deadlock (that is, if duly elected politicians actually take note of the result and somehow form a majority).  But I'm not sure any of the options bandied about have a majority (e.g. remain, Norway Plus style leave, May deal, hard Brexit / no-deal Brexit.  Any others?), nor that there is agreement how such a referendum should be performed or which options should be offered.

I still think they'd be best off if they had never triggered Brexit - but now, 2.5 years after the referendum, I get the impression that a large number of people are going to be upset whether they remain or leave, and that there are significant divides in the country that will be very difficult to heal. So even if some percentage of leave voters have changed their mind (as is certainly talked about), it doesn't mean remain will make everything better.

I saw talk of betting on which goods will be rationed first, which is slightly amusing but grim too. No Deal could be pretty bad.
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vox nihili

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2019, 10:34:34 pm »
+4
Has been a while:

Remarkably little has happened since my last post in policy terms, with the UK still hurtling towards the 29th of March deadline. There has been no extension to the deadline, and whilst Theresa May has been negotiating in earnest with the EU it really hasn't progressed anywhere.

Very interestingly though, this week 7 MPs split from the Labour party to form an as-yet-unnamed centrist political party committed to stopping brexit. They also cited the appalling anti-semitism in the Labour party as another reason for splitting, as well as the bevy of differences they have with the hard-left leadership of the party under Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn, predictably, heaped scorn on them and said they should all resign; however, his deputy basically supported their reasons for leaving and said that Jeremy Corbyn needed to expand the breadth of people on the front bench and said he doesn't recognise the Labour party anymore (to be clear, he's a Blairite). John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor (i.e. treasurer), initially shat all over them but then contradicted Corbyn and said it was important to reach out across the party. MPs were so convinced that another left the next day, bringing the total to 8.

Then, somewhat unsurprisingly, three tories also left their party to join the independent grouping. These Tories have been consistent critics of the government and have consistently rebelled against the government on key Brexit votes. Anna Soubry, in particular, will add some firepower to the group. She's a personal favourite of mine and will really pull some remain supporters towards the group.

EDIT: as an addition, this type of split has happened before in the Labour party a few times. The most famous example is when four Labour ministers split off to form the Social-Democrat Party (SDP) in remarkably similar circumstances (i.e. hard left leadership floundering in the electorate, Right of the party splits). At the time, they weren't able to pull any other labour members to their ranks; however, they split the labour vote in a lot of seats and were a big part of the reason that Margaret Thatcher stayed in power for so long. The party eventually floundered itself and then merged with the Liberal party to form the Liberal-Democrats. The Liberal party was actually quite a big party in the early 20th century, holding government for a few terms and introducing the British welfare state. Their popularity declined substantially until the merger, at which point the Lib Dems typically held between 10-50 seats in parliament and actually formed government with the Tories in 2010.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2019, 11:12:41 pm by vox nihili »
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vox nihili

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2019, 09:49:42 pm »
+5
Two big changes today:

-Theresa May looks as though she might be about to offer MPs the opportunity to force her to extend article 50
-Jeremy Corbyn has indicated that he will campaign for a referendum to vote on TM's deal vs remain. He qualified it very heavily because he hates the EU and wants to leave (because he's a fucking lunatic) but the shadow foreign secretary skewered him by saying that he'd campaign enthusiastically for Remain
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vox nihili

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #7 on: March 11, 2019, 10:07:26 pm »
+4
Big week in Brexit this week, so watch this space.

There will be three days of voting that will really set things up for the future.

Day 1: vote on May's deal
Day 2: vote on alternative
Day 3: vote to extend article 50

Could see May out of the job very soon, as it appears as though she hasn't got the concessions from the EU to see the deal passed through parliament. A lot of potential challengers to her leadership are stirring, Boris Johnson even cut his ridiculous hair. Watch this space.
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turinturambar

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2019, 12:01:54 am »
0
So, Parliament have voted against no deal Brexit and against the May Brexit but for an extension to the deadline.  However, with a week left the default option is still leaving with no deal.  What do you reckon happens next?
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vox nihili

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2019, 12:19:51 pm »
+3
So, Parliament have voted against no deal Brexit and against the May Brexit but for an extension to the deadline.  However, with a week left the default option is still leaving with no deal.  What do you reckon happens next?

Really sorry! I didn't see your response!

As is always the case with Brexit, these questions are largely redundant now. They've secured an extension to the 12th of April, with the option of a longer extension if necessary to pass May's deal.


A broader update: I've avoided updating this thread because there's been a heap of stuff going on since then but it all changes every second minute. Early this morning (our time) May brought her deal back to parliament for a third time. Despite some very high profile movements on the vote (e.g. JRM and Boris Johnson both supporting the deal, along with Dominic Raab), it still lost by a huge margin of 58. I watched this live and was absolutely astounded by May's response to the third loss of her deal: she effectively said that parliament was running out of options and implied that she would bring it back again.

I'm not sure there has genuinely been a more incompetent leader than Theresa May. I genuinely don't mean this in a partisan sense; I'm just absolutely astounded by how unwilling she is to budge. She's driven her party and the country towards the cliff edge, and despite being told by all and sundry that the cliff is coming, she hits the accelerator.

As an interesting aside, if TM were an Australian PM she'd have been compelled to resign after the first rejection of her deal. In Australia, defeats on major government legislation are taken as an indication that the government does not have the confidence of parliament. Of course, the UK's parliament is a little more robust than ours and so this interpretation is not one we borrowed from Westminster.

EDIT: I should make the point that May's stated position is that she'll bring the deal back one more time or she will call an election. To be perfectly honest, her power has been so depleted that this is largely irrelevant. It won't be up to her to set the agenda from here, especially given that a general election will require a super majority of 2/3 and I can't see that many conservatives itching to lose their own seats.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2019, 12:22:26 pm by vox nihili »
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turinturambar

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #10 on: April 11, 2019, 09:34:29 pm »
0
And now Brexit has shifted to Halloween.  Or not, as the case may be.
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vox nihili

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2019, 10:45:16 pm »
+2
And now Brexit has shifted to Halloween.  Or not, as the case may be.

For those not following anymore, the EU has offered an extension to Halloween with an early exit clause if May can get the deal through parliament. Really difficult to see what happens from here, with May's talks with Labour not really advancing either. Very deflated in the UK atm.
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turinturambar

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2019, 11:53:26 pm »
+1
Brexit seems to be lurching from crisis to crisis. Unsurprisingly, new PM Boris Johnson hasn't magically solved everything, hasn't been able to get a majority in Parliament behind him, and it seems likely that the Brexit deadline will be extended further without any way to actually achieve it and get a Parliamentary majority...

I was talking with one of my UK colleagues today, and she said, in spite of originally voting Remain, she thinks they should obey the will of the people and exit, and just wants it over and done with and no longer dominating the news and strangling the country. She talked about all the problems concerned: No one wanting to book or go on holidays, to buy or sell property, move house, change jobs, etc. Though in her opinion not as many companies were leaving The City because of the uncertainty as originally talked about (though some might be choosing to expand European branches and not London branches).
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vox nihili

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2019, 12:45:56 pm »
+2
Brexit seems to be lurching from crisis to crisis. Unsurprisingly, new PM Boris Johnson hasn't magically solved everything, hasn't been able to get a majority in Parliament behind him, and it seems likely that the Brexit deadline will be extended further without any way to actually achieve it and get a Parliamentary majority...

I was talking with one of my UK colleagues today, and she said, in spite of originally voting Remain, she thinks they should obey the will of the people and exit, and just wants it over and done with and no longer dominating the news and strangling the country. She talked about all the problems concerned: No one wanting to book or go on holidays, to buy or sell property, move house, change jobs, etc. Though in her opinion not as many companies were leaving The City because of the uncertainty as originally talked about (though some might be choosing to expand European branches and not London branches).

For anyone not following, the events in the UK the last few days have been genuinely flooring.

Some highlights:

-BJ proroguing parliament (i.e. cancelling it for a bit) so that they can't vote against his government
-BJ losing his first vote in parliament, the first PM to do so since the early 19th century
-tories losing their majority
-21 rebelled against the government on the first vote, all were kicked out of the party (despite BJ doing that on several occasions). Among the rebels included the immediate past Chancellor (i.e. treasurer in Australian terms), the longest serving member of parliament and former minister under Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron, and Winston Churchill's grandson. Incredible we're at a point where Winston Churchill's grandson doesn't belong in the Tories anymore.
-BJ's own brother resigning from govt and parliament because of the "tension between family loyalty and the national interest".

Wild times.
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Re: Brexit
« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2019, 02:27:55 pm »
+1
For anyone not following, the events in the UK the last few days have been genuinely flooring.

Some highlights:

-BJ proroguing parliament (i.e. cancelling it for a bit) so that they can't vote against his government
-BJ losing his first vote in parliament, the first PM to do so since the early 19th century
-tories losing their majority
-21 rebelled against the government on the first vote, all were kicked out of the party (despite BJ doing that on several occasions). Among the rebels included the immediate past Chancellor (i.e. treasurer in Australian terms), the longest serving member of parliament and former minister under Heath, Thatcher, Major and Cameron, and Winston Churchill's grandson. Incredible we're at a point where Winston Churchill's grandson doesn't belong in the Tories anymore.
-BJ's own brother resigning from govt and parliament because of the "tension between family loyalty and the national interest".

Wild times.

And the world laughs at our government..........
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